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href="/info/industry/special/power">電源與新能源</a> > <a href="/info/articlelist/special/power/type/4">市場(chǎng)分析</a> > 深度分析光伏“產(chǎn)能過(guò)?！敝?/p> </div> </div> </div>   <script src="https://forum.eepw.com.cn/jscontent/wenzilian" type="text/javascript"></script>  <div class="ntzxzmw" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>深度分析光伏“產(chǎn)能過(guò)?！敝?/h1> <div id="otcpyac" class="subhead" style="padding-bottom:15px;padding-right:50px;font-size:16px;color:#252525;font-style:normal;text-align:center;">—— 光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)下“盲目擴(kuò)張”和“產(chǎn)能過(guò)?！钡呢?fù)面典型</div> <div id="pkomzbh" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時(shí)間：2012-12-12</span> <span>來(lái)源：SEMI</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:150px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="vvxzxzf" class="nav0"> <ul> <li style="width:150px;"><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />英飛凌汽車(chē)電子生態(tài)圈</a> <ul> <li style="width:150px;text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_2.jpg" width="150"><br />掃碼關(guān)注<br />獲取最新最全汽車(chē)電子<br />技術(shù)方案與實(shí)用技巧</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="utgikxd" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="nfwupvq" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="kuhbdqa" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　如果從傳統(tǒng)能源與新能源相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的角度看，雙反本身就壓縮了<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏"><em>光伏</em></a>市場(chǎng)的成長(zhǎng)前景，從而損害了全球<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏"><em>光伏</em></a>的未來(lái)市場(chǎng)。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/139970.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/139970.htm</a> <p>　　在大多數(shù)市場(chǎng)參與者眼里和分析家筆下，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏"><em>光伏</em></a>產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)下“盲目擴(kuò)張”和“產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩”的負(fù)面典型，國(guó)內(nèi)外皆然。就中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，連續(xù)5年年增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)100%，在產(chǎn)品價(jià)格暴跌的背景下企業(yè)利潤(rùn)銳減乃至大面積虧損，巨額負(fù)債更令企業(yè)如牛負(fù)重。</p> <p>　　2010年，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)毛利率還在30%左右，2011年就降到10%以下，而這個(gè)行業(yè)企業(yè)毛利率若是達(dá)不到10%就難以實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。到今年上半年，海外上市的中國(guó)光伏股中，毛利率低達(dá)1%以下者已經(jīng)比比皆是，有的甚至為負(fù)數(shù)。</p> <p>　　從已公布的上半年財(cái)報(bào)看，66家光伏上市企業(yè)凈利潤(rùn)降幅普遍超過(guò)50%，毛利率均低于10%，10余家光伏上市公司虧損。在重重壓力之下，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/尚德"><em>尚德</em></a>、賽維等龍頭企業(yè)深陷破產(chǎn)危機(jī)。賽維LDK去年虧損6.5545億美元，今年上半年虧損10.8億元，負(fù)債266.76億元，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率高達(dá)88%左右。</p> <p>　　近期，美歐相繼對(duì)中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)起“雙反”，也被國(guó)內(nèi)外相當(dāng)一部分觀察家視為中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)激進(jìn)擴(kuò)張的必然結(jié)果。由于中國(guó)光伏組件出口依存度極高，2010年之前98%的產(chǎn)品出口歐美市場(chǎng)，2011年這項(xiàng)比例仍然高達(dá)90%，美歐對(duì)中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的“雙反”又令其雪上加霜。</p> <p>　　就全世界光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，在分析了300多家光伏電池板制造商的基礎(chǔ)上，可再生能源咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)GTM研究(GTM Research)10月16日發(fā)布的報(bào)告估計(jì)，未來(lái)三年全世界光伏產(chǎn)品年均供應(yīng)量將超出需求3500萬(wàn)千瓦，產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩很可能導(dǎo)致180家光伏電池制造商在2015年之前破產(chǎn)或被兼并，亦即60%的企業(yè)退出。</p> <p>　　傳統(tǒng)能源倒逼新能源擴(kuò)張</p> <p>　　倘若從與傳統(tǒng)化石能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的角度重新審視，我們不難對(duì)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的“盲目擴(kuò)張”取得新的認(rèn)識(shí)。</p> <p>　　光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)與傳統(tǒng)化石能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的關(guān)鍵是價(jià)格和成本，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)近年來(lái)得以實(shí)現(xiàn)高速增長(zhǎng)，并不是各國(guó)、各地政府的扶持，而是新世紀(jì)以來(lái)這一輪初級(jí)產(chǎn)品牛市中，石油天然氣等化石能源價(jià)格持續(xù)大幅度暴漲。各國(guó)、各地政府之所以決策強(qiáng)力支持扶植<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/太陽(yáng)能"><em>太陽(yáng)能</em></a>等新能源，原因也在于此。</p> <p>　　因?yàn)?a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/太陽(yáng)能"><em>太陽(yáng)能</em></a>發(fā)電迄今成本較高，而且在供應(yīng)電力穩(wěn)定性等方面還不能與常規(guī)的火力發(fā)電相比。如果石油、天然氣、煤炭等化石能源保持低價(jià)，無(wú)情的市場(chǎng)規(guī)律將使得光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)難以找到足夠的需求，而如果需求太小，導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)規(guī)模太小，不足以實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的成本就難以下降，也就更難以打開(kāi)市場(chǎng)銷路，形成惡性循環(huán)。正是石油天然氣等化石能源價(jià)格暴漲，才使得<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/太陽(yáng)能"><em>太陽(yáng)能</em></a>發(fā)電的商業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力陡增，藉此贏得了較大市場(chǎng)規(guī)模，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)得以實(shí)現(xiàn)一定程度的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，從而進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)其價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，形成“市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大——規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益降低成本——需求進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大”的良性循環(huán)。</p> <p>　　上述良性循環(huán)要想實(shí)現(xiàn)，關(guān)鍵就在于高投資和迅速形成生產(chǎn)能力，推動(dòng)生產(chǎn)成本和價(jià)格快速降低，從而搶在化石能源行情大幅度下跌之前建立對(duì)化石能源可持續(xù)的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。</p> <p>　　回顧1970—1980年代石油危機(jī)前后替代能源和節(jié)能技術(shù)的命運(yùn)變遷，就不難理解這一點(diǎn)對(duì)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)何其至關(guān)重要。</p> <p>　　1970年代至1980年代前期，水力、核電、煤炭等替代能源和節(jié)能技術(shù)的開(kāi)發(fā)取得長(zhǎng)足進(jìn)展：二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期苦于油源匱乏，德國(guó)開(kāi)發(fā)的煤炭液化技術(shù)在戰(zhàn)后長(zhǎng)期被束之高閣，那時(shí)又被從故紙堆里翻出來(lái)并一度大放異彩;巴西大規(guī)模推行酒精燃料汽車(chē)計(jì)劃;哈默的西方石油公司在第二次石油危機(jī)的沖擊下竟然投入巨資在中國(guó)開(kāi)發(fā)安太堡煤礦……</p> <p>　　之所以如此，關(guān)鍵在于1973—1974年和1979—1980年的兩輪油價(jià)暴漲，用工業(yè)化國(guó)家出口的制成品衡量，1974年石油實(shí)際價(jià)格上漲3倍之多，以至于西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者將歐佩克主導(dǎo)的這兩輪大幅度提高油價(jià)稱為“世界歷史上壟斷力量的最大勝利”、“有史以來(lái)最成功的人為大提價(jià)”。</p> <p>　　然而，到上世紀(jì)80年代中期之后，隨著實(shí)際油價(jià)顯著下跌，很多替代能源和節(jié)能技術(shù)便長(zhǎng)期遭遇冷場(chǎng)，直至新世紀(jì)這一輪初級(jí)產(chǎn)品牛市才再度咸魚(yú)翻身。</p> <p>　　對(duì)于光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)而言，替代能源的上述歷史完全有可能重演。這兩年全球初級(jí)產(chǎn)品牛市已經(jīng)終結(jié)，包括能源在內(nèi)的初級(jí)產(chǎn)品行情已經(jīng)顯著下跌，美國(guó)發(fā)起的“頁(yè)巖氣革命”更令石油天然氣價(jià)格面臨持續(xù)下行的重壓，美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格比一年前下跌了一半左右，歐美石油巨頭盈利因此普遍下滑。</p> <p>　　?？松梨诠镜诙径荣~面凈利潤(rùn)有所增長(zhǎng)，但這種增長(zhǎng)主要來(lái)自出售在日資產(chǎn)等臨時(shí)性利潤(rùn)，實(shí)際凈利潤(rùn)減少了;雪佛龍公司整個(gè)凈利潤(rùn)同比減少7%至72.1億美元;英荷殼牌石油公司第二季度凈利潤(rùn)40.63億美元，同比銳減53%;英國(guó)石油公司第二季度虧損13.85億美元，而去年同期為盈利57.18億美元，是該公司2010年第二季度遭遇墨西哥灣漏油事件以來(lái)，第一次出現(xiàn)季度虧損;即使是石油服務(wù)商如哈利伯頓、貝克休斯、威德福等公司，其今年第二季度北美地區(qū)經(jīng)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)也同比下降了10億美元左右。</p> <p>　　雙反有損于行業(yè)發(fā)展</p> <p>　　金融市場(chǎng)參與者們大力炒作的美國(guó)第三輪量化寬松預(yù)期、中國(guó)和歐洲反危機(jī)政策、中東動(dòng)蕩等題材固然能夠在能源和其它初級(jí)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)上制造一次次反彈，卻并不足以對(duì)初級(jí)產(chǎn)品供求關(guān)系的總體格局產(chǎn)生大的影響。在這樣的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下，包括太陽(yáng)能在內(nèi)的新能源價(jià)格維持高位，只能使其在傳統(tǒng)能源價(jià)格下跌時(shí)加快被淘汰?！　〔诲e(cuò)，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)上下游價(jià)格均大幅度下降，光伏組件產(chǎn)品價(jià)格從10年前的6美元/瓦下降到目前的1美元/瓦，太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電成本從1美元/度下降到1元/度，多晶硅進(jìn)口價(jià)格從2008年最高時(shí)的接近300美元/公斤下跌到2012年6月的23.6美元/公斤……這樣的下跌固然給相當(dāng)一部分企業(yè)帶來(lái)了困難，但基于上述分析，這樣的大幅度跌價(jià)又是光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)生存所必不可少的。</p> <p>　　正是從與傳統(tǒng)化石能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的角度出發(fā)，生產(chǎn)成本明顯低得多的中國(guó)光伏企業(yè)具有更強(qiáng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和生存能力，在相當(dāng)程度上代表了這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的方向。</p> <p>　　根據(jù)GTM研究報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)，歐洲、美國(guó)和日本光伏電池企業(yè)制造成本超過(guò)80美分/瓦，中國(guó)企業(yè)成本為58—68美分/瓦。盡管該報(bào)告估計(jì)未來(lái)3年內(nèi)將有54家中國(guó)光伏企業(yè)破產(chǎn)或被兼并，但同一份報(bào)告估算的全球光伏電池企業(yè)破產(chǎn)、被兼并者超過(guò)180家，中國(guó)企業(yè)破產(chǎn)家數(shù)占比例在30%以內(nèi)，明顯低于中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)能占全球全行業(yè)比重，實(shí)際上是從側(cè)面認(rèn)定中國(guó)光伏企業(yè)在全行業(yè)嚴(yán)冬中生存能力更強(qiáng)。</p> <p>　　慫恿本國(guó)政府對(duì)中國(guó)同行發(fā)動(dòng)“雙反”、企圖維持光伏產(chǎn)品高價(jià)的歐美廠商，奉行的是一條不切實(shí)際的錯(cuò)誤經(jīng)營(yíng)思路，只能使光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)難以足夠迅速地降低生產(chǎn)成本和銷售價(jià)格，在常規(guī)化石能源面前難與爭(zhēng)鋒。即使不考慮歐美光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)獲得巨額政府資助的事實(shí)，領(lǐng)頭投訴中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)、挑起美歐對(duì)華“太陽(yáng)能戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”的德國(guó)太陽(yáng)能世界公司(Solar World)在2003—2011年間直接獲得的政府資助就有1.37億歐元。</p> <p>　　即使不考慮中國(guó)已經(jīng)具備了發(fā)動(dòng)貿(mào)易報(bào)復(fù)和在世貿(mào)組織打“規(guī)則戰(zhàn)”的能力，單從美歐自身得失和想要達(dá)到的目的出發(fā)，他們發(fā)起的這場(chǎng)“太陽(yáng)能戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”也在多個(gè)方面深陷誤區(qū)，最大誤區(qū)就是他們發(fā)起的這場(chǎng)“太陽(yáng)能戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”本身就會(huì)壓縮光伏市場(chǎng)的成長(zhǎng)前景，進(jìn)而損害他們意欲拯救的國(guó)內(nèi)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)。就算是歐美政府“成功”地將中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)品拒之門(mén)外，他們的本土光伏企業(yè)也經(jīng)受不起廉價(jià)的傳統(tǒng)化石能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。</p> <p>　　而由于中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)廣大，且中國(guó)政府必定會(huì)在國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)和開(kāi)拓出口新市場(chǎng)方面采取措施，以求保住這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)，這個(gè)行業(yè)國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌價(jià)格的大幅度下跌也給國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)需求上升創(chuàng)造了條件，他們的“雙方”也不可能打垮、消滅中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)這個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。畢竟，2011年中國(guó)占全球?qū)嶋HGDP份額已達(dá)14.3%，與整個(gè)歐元區(qū)相當(dāng)。目前歐盟光伏市場(chǎng)為20GW，因此中國(guó)“十二五”規(guī)劃制定的22GW—25GW目標(biāo)并非虛無(wú)縹緲無(wú)從落實(shí)，而是很有可能變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)。</p> <p>　　基于上述分析，中國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的高速成長(zhǎng)本身并非錯(cuò)誤，錯(cuò)誤的是進(jìn)入的技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等壁壘太低，監(jiān)管太“溫柔”，以至于不具備基礎(chǔ)專業(yè)知識(shí)、在生產(chǎn)中大量使用廢次料的小廠也得以大量興起，惡化了整個(gè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展環(huán)境，讓我們?cè)诓豢杀苊鈨?yōu)勝劣汰的產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中付出了一部分本可避免的代價(jià)。能夠推動(dòng)一個(gè)新興產(chǎn)業(yè)在數(shù)年之內(nèi)躍居世界第一、占據(jù)全球市場(chǎng)60%以上份額，這是中國(guó)發(fā)展能力的表現(xiàn)，在越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家企圖“趕超”中國(guó)之際，這種能力正日益顯得可貴。</p> <p>　　這種情況下，我們?cè)撟龅氖墙柚?dāng)前的行業(yè)嚴(yán)冬淘汰不合格小廠，而不是自廢武功。在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制下，我們不能指望完全避免源于優(yōu)勝劣汰競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的“產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩”和“浪費(fèi)”，而如果我們想在一個(gè)重要行業(yè)的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，即使在全球性產(chǎn)業(yè)危機(jī)中有一批企業(yè)被淘汰，只要我們破產(chǎn)重組企業(yè)占比低于產(chǎn)能占比，在全球該產(chǎn)業(yè)重組之后我們的市場(chǎng)份額和地位就仍然會(huì)保持或繼續(xù)提高，我們要達(dá)到的目標(biāo)仍然可以實(shí)現(xiàn)。</p></span>  <div class="ihuaypz" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img 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