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<article> <h1>英特爾前景轉(zhuǎn)好:股價五年或?qū)⒎?/h1> <div id="gqk8ksk" class="subhead" style="padding-bottom:15px;padding-right:50px;font-size:16px;color:#252525;font-style:normal;text-align:center;">—— 英特爾的未來似乎比很多投資者想像得更加光明</div> <div id="gkseoa4" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2013-06-09</span> <span>來源：新浪科技</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="kygsuwu" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="gu4kywe" 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href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/146262.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/146262.htm</a> <p>　　<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英特爾"><em>英特爾</em></a>的未來似乎比很多投資者想像得更加光明。初期跡象顯示，該公司即將在平板電腦和智能手機(jī)芯片市場拿下大量份額。除此之外，該公司的服務(wù)器芯片銷量也將增加，就連一直疲軟的PC市場也會企穩(wěn)。</p> <p>　　以過去1年、3年和5年三個時間段來看，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英特爾"><em>英特爾</em></a>股價的走勢都遠(yuǎn)遜于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)。但按照當(dāng)前24美元的股價計算，該股有可能在5年甚至更短的時間內(nèi)翻番。</p> <p>　　曾幾何時，由于<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/處理器"><em>處理器</em></a>的速度會頻繁地落后于軟件需求，導(dǎo)致PC每過幾年就要升級一次。但時過境遷，當(dāng)今的網(wǎng)頁程式將很多繁重的任務(wù)交給了網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)器，即使是五年前購買的PC依然可以輕松勝任多數(shù)任務(wù)。</p> <p>　　在智能手機(jī)和平板電腦的聯(lián)合打壓下，今年的全球PC市場出貨量已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)萎縮。<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英特爾"><em>英特爾</em></a>似乎處境不佳：該公司有三分之二的營收源于PC市場，而利潤的占比更是只多不少。該公司在全球臺式機(jī)芯片市場占據(jù)80%的份額，筆記本市場的份額高達(dá)87%，但平板電腦市場份額卻只有1%，智能手機(jī)份額更低。多數(shù)流動設(shè)備都采用了高通、Apple公司和Samsung電子生產(chǎn)的ARM架構(gòu)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/處理器"><em>處理器</em></a>。這些企業(yè)都從ARM購買了授權(quán)，這也推動這家英國芯片設(shè)計公司的股價在3年內(nèi)上漲了3倍。</p> <p>　　靜待反彈</p> <p>　　英特爾最近的花錢速度也超過了賺錢速度。該公司今年的每股收益有可能下滑12%，至1.8美元。該股對應(yīng)今年的市盈率為13倍，而標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的平均市盈率為15倍。股價下跌會推升股息收益率，而英特爾目前的股息收益率為3.7%，幾乎是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的兩倍。投資者當(dāng)前最佳的決策或許是逢低買入，不僅可以獲得不俗的股息收益率，而且可以靜待該股反彈。</p> <p>　　英特爾去年的研發(fā)費(fèi)用7倍于業(yè)界排名第二的高通。該公司今年的生產(chǎn)制造開支甚至?xí)^全球最大芯片代工企業(yè)臺積電，從而在今后幾年以低于競爭對手的成本，生產(chǎn)出速度更快、能耗更低的芯片。該公司今年將以22納米的尖端工藝生產(chǎn)凌動(Atom)芯片，明年還將采用14納米工藝，而ARM架構(gòu)芯片有可能繼續(xù)使用28納米芯片。芯片工藝的納米數(shù)越小，速度就越高，能耗也越低。</p> <p>　　Samsung和ASUS最近就在尺寸較大的Android平板電腦中用凌動<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/處理器"><em>處理器</em></a>取代了ARM芯片。德意志銀行分析師羅斯·塞莫爾(RossSeymore)認(rèn)為這是英特爾成功的先兆，并預(yù)計該公司今年將在平板電腦市場奪取更大份額，明年還將拿下更多的智能手機(jī)份額。</p> <p>　　流動市場的成功有可能為英特爾吸引更多用戶，但未必能夠大幅提升該公司的營收。富國銀行分析師大衛(wèi)·王(DavidWong)說，凌動芯片的單價不到30美元，遠(yuǎn)低于臺式機(jī)和筆記本芯片的100多美元，而服務(wù)器芯片更是將近600美元。即使英特爾拿下10%的智能手機(jī)和30%的非Apple平板電腦市場份額，也只能對該公司的營收帶來幾個百分點(diǎn)的促進(jìn)。</p> <p>　　利潤增加</p> <p>　　更重要的在于，隨著各種流動設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)流量增加，該公司的服務(wù)器芯片需求將會提升。英特爾估計，大概每新增122臺平板電腦，就需要新增一臺服務(wù)器，而每一臺服務(wù)器可能至少裝有兩個芯片。大衛(wèi)·王表示，英特爾的服務(wù)器營收目前在其總營收中占比為21%，預(yù)計今后幾年將保持15%左右的增速，并將為該公司貢獻(xiàn)豐厚的利潤。</p> <p>　　美國投資銀行TopekaCapitalMarkets分析師蘇吉·德·席爾瓦(SujiDeSilva)表示，PC市場今年的多數(shù)下滑都將源自全球經(jīng)濟(jì)因素以及新機(jī)型的缺失，而非用戶的購買意愿降低，美國市場研究公司IDC預(yù)計，今年全球PC出貨量將萎縮7.8%，但明年則會收窄至1.2%。富國銀行的大衛(wèi)·王認(rèn)為，得益于新興市場的增長和市場份額的擴(kuò)大，英特爾的臺式機(jī)營收今后幾年將實(shí)現(xiàn)5%以內(nèi)的年增速，筆記本芯片營收則會保持兩位數(shù)增長。</p> <p>　　最后，英特爾120億美元的資本開支將有助于降低該公司的制造成本，并為其贏得新業(yè)務(wù)：高端芯片外包。英特爾今年已經(jīng)與Microsemi和Altera兩家公司簽訂了外包協(xié)議，麥格理證券分析師肖恩·韋伯斯特(ShawnWebster)表示，該公司今后還有可能與Apple公司建立合作關(guān)系，后者之前一直被迫使用競爭對手Samsung代工的芯片。長期的代工協(xié)議有望為英特爾打開流動芯片市場的一道后門。</p> <p>　　英特爾今年的每股收益可能會增長8%，達(dá)到2.02美元。等到接近2013年時，該公司的每股收益可能會突破3美元，從而獲得更高的市盈率。用15倍的市場平均市盈率乘以3美元的每股收益，便可得出45美元的股價。即使今后幾年的股息只保持溫和增長，加上5年的分紅后，該股總價值屆時也將達(dá)到50美元，遠(yuǎn)高于現(xiàn)價。</p></span>  <div class="k4w4yaq" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="4yaak0u" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="soiggy4" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="ciu4ycs" class="hAd6"> <div 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