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<section> <article> <h1>歡呼遮蓋擔(dān)憂中國光伏“高燒”后能否恢復(fù)元?dú)猓?/h1> <div id="6161161" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時(shí)間：2013-08-12</span> <span>來源：科技日報(bào)</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:150px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="6111611" class="nav0"> <ul> <li style="width:150px;"><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />英飛凌汽車電子生態(tài)圈</a> <ul> <li style="width:150px;text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_2.jpg" width="150"><br />掃碼關(guān)注<br />獲取最新最全汽車電子<br />技術(shù)方案與實(shí)用技巧</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="6166116" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="6666161" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="6161611" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　歐盟委員會8月7日發(fā)布公告，就對華<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏"><em>光伏</em></a>產(chǎn)品反補(bǔ)貼調(diào)查作出初裁：不對產(chǎn)自中國的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/太陽能"><em>太陽能</em></a>產(chǎn)品采取臨時(shí)性反補(bǔ)貼措施。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/158876.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/158876.htm</a> <p>　　同一天，我國商務(wù)部新聞發(fā)言人沈丹陽接受采訪稱，歐委會決定接受由中國機(jī)電進(jìn)出口商會和94家中國出口企業(yè)提出的價(jià)格承諾。自8月6日起，參加價(jià)格承諾的企業(yè)免征反傾銷稅，未參加的將按照公告中具體稅率支付反傾銷稅。</p> <p>　　這是自<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏"><em>光伏</em></a>產(chǎn)業(yè)遭遇“雙反”困境以來，最令人振奮的消息，但中國<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏"><em>光伏</em></a>行業(yè)是否能就此走出困境仍是大家關(guān)注和爭議的話題。</p> <p>　　風(fēng)光時(shí)代，歡呼遮蓋了擔(dān)憂</p> <p>　　自無錫尚德宣布破產(chǎn)迄今已近半年的時(shí)間。曾經(jīng)的龍頭企業(yè)步入絕境宣告中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)到了生死存亡的境地。</p> <p>　　中國<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/太陽能"><em>太陽能</em></a>光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)能、產(chǎn)量均居世界第一，卻有90%以上產(chǎn)品依靠出口。產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)在國內(nèi)、光伏應(yīng)用在國外，這樣的市場倒掛導(dǎo)致光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)嚴(yán)重受制于人。這些問題導(dǎo)致了后來的產(chǎn)業(yè)困局。</p> <p>　　時(shí)光回到2008年，那是中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)最風(fēng)光的年代。那一年，第十屆中國光伏大會在江蘇常州召開，各路光伏從業(yè)人員齊集，包括發(fā)改委、財(cái)政部、科技部的政府官員們也都到場發(fā)表講話，各自表達(dá)了對光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的支持以及信心。投資方聞風(fēng)而動。在當(dāng)時(shí)的會場，科技日報(bào)記者見到了宏源證券的一位投資人李清，他告訴記者，為了這張大會入場券繳納了不菲的會費(fèi)，但這一切看起來都是值得的，他在這里見到了幾乎所有的“業(yè)內(nèi)大拿”，并與他們建立聯(lián)系，“更重要的是到處都有商機(jī)，很多地方都要上多晶硅的大項(xiàng)目，產(chǎn)能一個(gè)比一個(gè)大”。</p> <p>　　也在這次大會上，記者采訪了無錫尚德的領(lǐng)頭人，被稱為“中國光伏之父”的施正榮。當(dāng)時(shí)他已排場不小，見到他時(shí)有幾位秘書模樣的人擋駕，聯(lián)系采訪也要通過公關(guān)人員的層層批準(zhǔn)，而他本人談得最多的還是慈善，通往常州的高鐵上擺放的就是以他為封面的慈善專題。</p> <p>　　如果說這次大會有不完美之處，便是在大會召開的同一時(shí)間，中國科學(xué)院院士王占國接受中央電視臺記者采訪，對國內(nèi)大量上馬的多晶硅項(xiàng)目可能產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境污染感到擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)檫@些項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)有的技術(shù)并不能完全解決副產(chǎn)品的回收問題。“目前國際上絕大多數(shù)多晶硅生產(chǎn)企業(yè)都采用閉環(huán)改良西門子法生產(chǎn)多晶硅，這種技術(shù)基本上可滿足環(huán)保要求;但采用技術(shù)比較落后的非閉環(huán)的所謂改良西門子法的廠家生產(chǎn)多晶硅，不僅能耗高，而且造成對生態(tài)環(huán)境的污染。”</p> <p>　　他的觀點(diǎn)遭到了已逝光伏專家崔容強(qiáng)教授的激烈批評，崔教授接受科技日報(bào)記者采訪時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào)王院士并不了解光伏，說了許多行外話。會場上，亦有少數(shù)人提到“這么大的產(chǎn)能能否消化”的問題，但在一片歡呼聲中這些不和諧音被完全淹沒。</p> <p>　　“眼睜睜走到了這一步”</p> <p>　　曾經(jīng)風(fēng)光無限的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)為何會步入今天的困局，這是許多人關(guān)注的問題。北京低碳清潔能源研究所<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/太陽能"><em>太陽能</em></a>中心主任陳頡認(rèn)為，“包括尚德在內(nèi)的太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)，走到今天，與行業(yè)內(nèi)惡性競爭、重復(fù)建設(shè)和產(chǎn)能過剩都脫不開關(guān)系”。</p> <p>　　“實(shí)際上，光伏行業(yè)的問題早在幾年前就不斷有人在呼吁，污染嚴(yán)重、國內(nèi)外市場不平衡、產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過剩、業(yè)內(nèi)惡斗、地方之間為GDP紛紛上馬大項(xiàng)目等等是所有人都明白的問題，但是很多人都不敢把問題講得太明白，即便講了也沒人聽。為什么?因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)、政府都成了這條利益鏈上的螞蚱，官員要政績，企業(yè)要政策支持，投資方要利益，誰也不能讓這根鏈條出問題，誰要斬?cái)噙@條利益鏈誰就成了公敵。”一位不愿意透露姓名的圈內(nèi)人士這樣告訴記者。</p> <p>　　“誰都知道問題，但就是眼睜睜走到了這一步。”他說，早在2009年，國務(wù)院就批轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)改委等部門《關(guān)于抑制部分行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩和重復(fù)建設(shè)引導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展的若干意見》，要求“嚴(yán)格控制在能源短缺、電價(jià)較高的地區(qū)新建多晶硅項(xiàng)目,對缺乏配套綜合利用、環(huán)保不達(dá)標(biāo)的多晶硅項(xiàng)目不予核準(zhǔn)或備案”。</p> <p>　　“這說明上層早就注意到了光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)存在的問題，但卻是回天乏力，通知一出，很多人著急了，銀行不給貸款了怎么辦?各部門不給政策了怎么辦?于是就出來了各種反向的解讀。”這位不愿透露姓名的人士說，當(dāng)時(shí)，多位長期為光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鼓與呼的專家就這樣說——“產(chǎn)能過剩的表達(dá)并不確切”、“當(dāng)前新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展所面臨的首要困難來自于‘政策支持不夠’而非‘技術(shù)障礙’”、“市場有能力通過優(yōu)勝劣汰擠干泡沫,降低成本，形成與生產(chǎn)規(guī)模相配套的技術(shù)水平和市場需求”。</p> <p>　　行業(yè)洗牌已成必然</p> <p>　　價(jià)格承諾方案的達(dá)成，將使中國企業(yè)避免在8月6日起被征收47.6%的高額關(guān)稅，為光伏企業(yè)保住了歐洲市場60%的份額。但出口數(shù)量如何在國內(nèi)企業(yè)間分配將成新問題，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)將在復(fù)雜環(huán)境下加速整合。</p> <p>　　國務(wù)院會議幾次支持光伏行業(yè)整合后，整合已悄然啟動。但產(chǎn)業(yè)整合的效果卻不會立刻體現(xiàn)：盡管部分資金狀況好的企業(yè)開始盈利，但也有部分企業(yè)在破產(chǎn)邊緣掙扎，一不小心就會被劃入“落后產(chǎn)能”的行列。</p> <p>　　另一方面，產(chǎn)能過剩的問題并未得到解決。來自彭博社的新能源調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2012年，全球晶硅組件產(chǎn)能共60.3GW(1GW=1百萬千瓦)，其中來自中國的產(chǎn)能就高達(dá)40GW。也就是說，全球2/3的光伏產(chǎn)能在中國。而當(dāng)年，全球光伏的裝機(jī)容量也就是30.5GW。</p> <p>　　國內(nèi)光伏企業(yè)有幾百家，魚龍混雜、參差不齊，如何降成本、提質(zhì)量、創(chuàng)新技術(shù)是企業(yè)亟待解決的問題。根據(jù)歐委會公告，只有應(yīng)訴的95家企業(yè)可以參與價(jià)格承諾安排，其他企業(yè)則要被繼續(xù)征收反傾銷稅，國內(nèi)的光伏企業(yè)可能迎來大變動。業(yè)內(nèi)人士提醒，在產(chǎn)能過剩并未根本改變的大背景下，國內(nèi)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)在較長一段時(shí)期內(nèi)處于加速洗牌和行業(yè)調(diào)整階段。</p> <p>　　前景仍被看好</p> <p>　　但對光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的未來，一些政府和投資人士表示看好。</p> <p>　　“對于光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)，我們?nèi)詰?yīng)堅(jiān)信它是一個(gè)前景廣闊的朝陽產(chǎn)業(yè)。”國務(wù)院參事、中國可再生能源學(xué)會理事長石定寰如是說。五年前，他接受采訪時(shí)就強(qiáng)調(diào)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展令人期待。</p> <p>　　事實(shí)上，在歐美市場遭遇危機(jī)的背景下，中國正試圖以大力發(fā)展分布式發(fā)電、推動光伏并網(wǎng)、實(shí)施“金太陽”工程等政策手段，啟動國內(nèi)光伏市場，釋放產(chǎn)能，從而解救中國光伏業(yè)。國務(wù)院幾次召開會議研討光伏行業(yè)的發(fā)展。2012年初出臺的《太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)“十二五”發(fā)展規(guī)劃》明確提出，支持我國光伏骨干企業(yè)做優(yōu)做強(qiáng)。其中，《規(guī)劃》提出，到2015年形成多晶硅領(lǐng)先企業(yè)達(dá)到5萬噸級，骨干企業(yè)達(dá)到萬噸級水平;太陽能電池領(lǐng)先企業(yè)達(dá)到5GW級，骨干企業(yè)達(dá)到GW級水平;1家年銷售收入過千億元的光伏企業(yè)，3—5家年銷售收入過500億元的光伏企業(yè);3—4家年銷售收入過10億元的光伏專用設(shè)備企業(yè)。</p> <p>　　一位投資人士在接受采訪時(shí)表示，他和同事們對于中國光伏行業(yè)一直在關(guān)注，“從談判達(dá)成的結(jié)果來看，未來歐洲市場的競爭將更有利于大型企業(yè)。中國光伏業(yè)在經(jīng)歷了三年的下行后，今年看到了希望，前景肯定還是有的，但目前來說肯定沒有這么快走出困境，還需要一段時(shí)間的觀望”。</p> <p>　　他提供了一份分析資料給記者。這份資料認(rèn)為，今年是光伏行業(yè)見底回升的轉(zhuǎn)折年，其實(shí)質(zhì)是供需關(guān)系改善。在裝機(jī)需求仍有較快增長的背景下，產(chǎn)能繼續(xù)收縮，而實(shí)際有效供給與需求的關(guān)系將達(dá)到合理比例。中國企業(yè)在歐洲市場將面臨價(jià)升量跌的局面，但總體盈利會保持穩(wěn)定，大企業(yè)的受益更大。</p></span>  <div class="1616666" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="1616116" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="1111166" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="6161116" class="hAd6"> <div class="1611111" id="relA" style="width:auto;height:auto;"> <ul> <li>  <iframe id='af71d594' name='af71d594' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=114&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' 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