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class="dzflrfe" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>AR、VR和語音技術(shù)，這三大技術(shù)創(chuàng)新正將智能手機(jī)送入墳?zāi)?/h1> <div id="vywcilo" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2018-03-27</span> <span>來源：騰訊科技</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="wsypknb" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="ipgmhgf" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="qioywzn" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="dscizym" class="editorNote"> <strong>編者按</strong>：取決于新興技術(shù)發(fā)展的速度，人們對智能手機(jī)何時過時可能有不同的看法，但是這種情況10年內(nèi)不會發(fā)生。</div> <br/> <div id="llrbwzy" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　3月24日消息，據(jù)外媒報道，撥號電話、尋呼機(jī)以及傳真機(jī)，這些通訊裝置在發(fā)明時都具有革命性意義，但它們現(xiàn)在幾乎絕跡了。下個被淘汰的通訊裝置會是智能手機(jī)嗎?</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201803/377434.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201803/377434.htm</a><p>　　皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)宣稱，智能手機(jī)是美國使用最廣泛的移動設(shè)備。截至2018年目前， 77%的美國成年人擁有智能手機(jī)。智能手機(jī)創(chuàng)造了迅速和相互聯(lián)系的通信方式，讓人們可以在幾秒鐘內(nèi)與朋友和家人進(jìn)行連接。</p><p>　　即便如此，今天的智能手機(jī)也終將被淘汰。三項技術(shù)革新已經(jīng)改變了移動通信技術(shù)的前景，增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)(<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/AR"><em>AR</em></a>)、虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)(<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/VR"><em>VR</em></a>)以及人工智能(AI)語音助手。</p><p>　　目前，智能手機(jī)通過連接到<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/AR"><em>AR</em></a>世界、<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/VR"><em>VR</em></a>頭盔以及語音助手應(yīng)用程序，為這些創(chuàng)新提供了寶貴的渠道。但是，隨著這些創(chuàng)新的軟件開發(fā)和改進(jìn)，智能手機(jī)會變得多余，將被這些創(chuàng)新技術(shù)送入墳?zāi)埂?/p><p>　　考慮到<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/AR"><em>AR</em></a>、<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/VR"><em>VR</em></a>和語音技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展，智能手機(jī)很有可能被終結(jié)?，F(xiàn)在已經(jīng)不是智能手機(jī)將如何消失的問題，而是什么時候會消失?</p><p><strong>　　1.增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)</strong></p><p>　　在2017年6月份，蘋果推出了其ARKit框架，允許開發(fā)者在新的iOS 11平臺打造移動AR應(yīng)用程序。2017年9月，蘋果發(fā)布新款iPhone 8和iPhone 8 Plus作為最早為AR設(shè)計的智能手機(jī)。傳言稱，微軟正在開發(fā)一款為AR優(yōu)化的Surface手機(jī)，據(jù)說華為也正在開發(fā)支持AR軟件的智能手機(jī)。</p><p>　　目前，無處不在的智能手機(jī)和平板電腦是支撐AR的完美硬件平臺。他們?yōu)锳R操作提供必要的組件，如攝像頭、應(yīng)用程序安裝和連接。至少現(xiàn)在看來，沒有比智能手機(jī)更好的方式，可以通過導(dǎo)航線索、實(shí)時天氣預(yù)報或全息Pokemon的方式加強(qiáng)我們的世界。</p><p>　　但隨著AR軟件的發(fā)展，可穿戴設(shè)備和眼鏡會使這些體驗(yàn)變得更可信和高效。包括三星、Facebook和亞馬遜在內(nèi)的許多科技公司，據(jù)說都在投資支持AR技術(shù)。據(jù)估計，到2024年，頭戴式顯示器將占據(jù)超過50%的AR產(chǎn)業(yè)份額。</p><p>　　為了支持AR技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，硬件平臺很可能會延伸到到智能手機(jī)之外，包括護(hù)目鏡、眼鏡以及最終的隱形眼鏡或植入物。</p><p><strong>　　2.虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)</strong></p><p>　　如果說AR已經(jīng)改變了我們使用手機(jī)的方式，那么VR將會產(chǎn)生更大的影響。目前的情形可以讓用戶在近乎真實(shí)的虛擬環(huán)境中進(jìn)行體驗(yàn)。今天，智能手機(jī)已經(jīng)通過允許用戶連接到笨重的頭盔和下載相關(guān)應(yīng)用體驗(yàn)VR，但可以預(yù)見，這種低效的連接方式不會持續(xù)太久。</p><p>　　市場研究公司Greenlight VR和VR媒體Road to VR曾發(fā)布《2016年VR行業(yè)報告》，提供了長達(dá)10年的預(yù)測，報告中估計到2020年末，將由3690萬套VR頭盔售出。</p><p>　　到2021年底，預(yù)計將有大約2.57億套VR頭盔被使用，在此期間的年復(fù)合增長率為71.8%?？偣灿?8.5%的VR頭盔將是便攜式設(shè)備，在它們的核心操作中使用類似智能手機(jī)的新式裝置。</p><p>　　就像昔日的笨重電腦，今天的VR頭盔在幾年之后看起來也會像老古董。三星、微軟、諾基亞和英特爾等大型電子公司已經(jīng)在VR領(lǐng)域投入了大量資金，并計劃在移動VR平臺上優(yōu)化眼動跟蹤技術(shù)。</p><p>　　HTC的Vive Pre和PlayStation VR都已經(jīng)很棒，并成為VR游樂場的早期門戶，但新的技術(shù)進(jìn)步可能使智能手機(jī)成為訪問虛擬世界不必要的設(shè)備。</p><p><strong>　　3.AI語音助手</strong></p><p>　　現(xiàn)在的語音識別技術(shù)和AI語音助手依然處于早期狀態(tài)，但它們已經(jīng)可以脫離智能手機(jī)獨(dú)立使用。你可以告訴Alexa訂購雜貨，讓Siri獲取天氣信息，并下令Cortana幫你在城鎮(zhèn)中導(dǎo)航。計算機(jī)科學(xué)家吳恩達(dá)(Andrew Ng)估計，到2020年底，至少50%的搜索將通過語音或圖像進(jìn)行。</p><p>　　將來，AI語音控制很可能成為你在谷歌上搜索問題答案、安排約會和做筆記的主要方式。市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)Gartner估計，到2019年，所有與智能手機(jī)用戶交互的20%將通過虛擬個人助理進(jìn)行。隨著AI技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，這一比例可能成倍增長。</p><p>　　隨著人們對虛擬數(shù)字助理(VDA)的興趣增長，必然會推動下一代物聯(lián)網(wǎng)誕生，它會連接我們周圍的物體，成為我們交流方式中的一個組成部分。你將不會浪費(fèi)時間打字和搜索問題，而會命令設(shè)備直接給你答案。虛擬數(shù)字助理有望使語音技術(shù)的使用變得更加流暢和自然，所以預(yù)計谷歌和必應(yīng)搜索框?qū)?027年消失。</p><p><strong>　　展望未來</strong></p><p>　　目前，智能手機(jī)將成為這些新興技術(shù)的主要載體，但認(rèn)為它們是唯一平臺將是錯誤的。相反，由于大量的資金和資源投入，并隨著第四次創(chuàng)新浪潮的推進(jìn)，智能手機(jī)將被更高效、更具沉浸感和更有效的其他設(shè)備取代。這些設(shè)備的接打電話部分可能會完全消失或被取代。</p><p>　　人們對智能手機(jī)何時過時可能有不同的看法。雖然這取決于這些新興技術(shù)發(fā)展的速度，但Gartner報告預(yù)測，到2020年底，我們的大多數(shù)設(shè)備將被設(shè)計為功能有限或無需觸摸的形式。</p><p>　　但手機(jī)不會馬上消失，畢竟舊習(xí)慣難改，當(dāng)新技術(shù)讓它們變得多余時，我們可能繼續(xù)沉迷于這些口袋設(shè)備，不會完全放棄它們。但有一件事是肯定的：AR、VR和語音技術(shù)正準(zhǔn)備在未來10年把今天的智能手機(jī)送入墳?zāi)埂?/p></span>  <div class="jjekmad" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" 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