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> <a href="/info/articlelist/special/smart/type/3">業(yè)界動(dòng)態(tài)</a> > 復(fù)盤IBM的2018，公司為什么會(huì)失敗？</p> </div> </div> </div>   <script src="https://forum.eepw.com.cn/jscontent/wenzilian" type="text/javascript"></script>  <div class="1661111" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>復(fù)盤IBM的2018，公司為什么會(huì)失?。?/h1> <div id="1116611" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時(shí)間：2019-01-16</span> <span>來源：網(wǎng)絡(luò)</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="6111611" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對(duì)面交流<br />海量資料庫(kù)查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="6166666" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="6166666" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="1616111" class="editorNote"> <strong>編者按</strong>：大約十年前，人們之所以熱衷討論藍(lán)色巨人IBM是因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)谠朴?jì)算中看到了巨大的商機(jī)，而當(dāng)羅瑞蘭(Virginia Rometty)接任CEO時(shí)，這種樂觀情緒更加強(qiáng)烈。但此后，該公司的情況持續(xù)惡化，過去10年中5.6%的總回報(bào)率遠(yuǎn)低于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)的13%回報(bào)率。2018年，IBM公司繼續(xù)虧損，市值縮水22%以上</div> <br/> <div id="1661111" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　大約十年前，人們之所以熱衷討論藍(lán)色巨人<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IBM"><em>IBM</em></a>是因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)谠朴?jì)算中看到了巨大的商機(jī)，而當(dāng)羅瑞蘭(Virginia Rometty)接任CEO時(shí)，這種樂觀情緒更加強(qiáng)烈。但此后，該公司的情況持續(xù)惡化，過去10年中5.6%的總回報(bào)率遠(yuǎn)低于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)的13%回報(bào)率。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201901/396779.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201901/396779.htm</a><p>　　2018年，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IBM"><em>IBM</em></a>公司繼續(xù)虧損，市值縮水22%以上，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的跌幅為5%。微軟、甲骨文、思科)、英特爾和蘋果等老牌科技公司都在不斷轉(zhuǎn)型。過去10年，這些公司的股價(jià)上漲了三位數(shù)，而<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IBM"><em>IBM</em></a>的股價(jià)增長(zhǎng)僅為35%。</p><p>　　該公司的衰落是由許多因素造成的，包括收入、凈利潤(rùn)、自由現(xiàn)金流和利潤(rùn)率的下降。同時(shí)亞馬遜、阿里巴巴和谷歌等新公司的入局，加劇了這種下滑。這些公司在IBM追尋的云計(jì)算等一些超大行業(yè)占據(jù)了大量的市場(chǎng)份額。這使得IBM公司不得不追趕這些新進(jìn)入者。因此，盡管云計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的增長(zhǎng)令人印象深刻，但該公司將面臨與提供全套服務(wù)的新進(jìn)入者競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的挑戰(zhàn)。事實(shí)上，在上個(gè)季度，IBM云業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)了22%，遠(yuǎn)低于<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/AWS"><em>AWS</em></a>和<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/Azure"><em>Azure</em></a>，后二者增幅分別為50%和89%。</p><p>　　下圖顯示了主要云計(jì)算供應(yīng)商的年度運(yùn)營(yíng)利率。</p><p>　　</p><center><img alt="" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201901/1547597010304166.jpg" width="500" height="144" title=""/></center><p style="text-align: center;">　　來源：ZDnet</p><p>　　公司股票的下跌導(dǎo)致了市盈率(price-to-earnings)、市銷率(price-to-sales)和市現(xiàn)率(price-to-cash)現(xiàn)金流的下降。這種估值降低，再加上該公司具有吸引力的股息收益率和股票數(shù)量的減少，曾讓包括沃倫.巴菲特(Warren Buffet)在內(nèi)的許多投資者押注于該公司的未來。但由于缺乏推動(dòng)股價(jià)上漲的催化劑，這些投資者被迫匆忙退出。</p><p><strong>　　回顧2018</strong></p><p>　　2018年，盡管IBM公布的數(shù)據(jù)相對(duì)好于預(yù)期，但考慮到谷歌、阿里巴巴、微軟和亞馬遜等云計(jì)算行業(yè)同行的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，投資者對(duì)其增長(zhǎng)潛力難以確定。第一季度時(shí)，該公司的收入為190億美元，較去年同期高出3億多美元。每股盈馀(EPS)2.45美元，比市場(chǎng)預(yù)期高出0.04美元。第二季度營(yíng)收為200億美元，較預(yù)估高出1.2億美元，EPS為3.08美元，較預(yù)估高出0.04美元。但在第三季度時(shí)收入為183.7億美元，比預(yù)期減少3.3億美元。這主要是因?yàn)檎J(rèn)知解決方案、技術(shù)服務(wù)和云平臺(tái)的衰落。據(jù)估算，該公司第四季度的營(yíng)收和EPS分別為218.6億美元和4.25美元。該公司全年總收入預(yù)計(jì)為791億美元，與2017年持平。IBM公司去年最大的新聞之一就是生命科學(xué)及醫(yī)藥期刊網(wǎng)站Stat的一份報(bào)告，報(bào)告稱該公司的沃森(Watson)產(chǎn)品推薦了“多個(gè)不安全和不正確治療建議的例子”。這一消息是在沃森公司解雇了一批工程師后不久傳出的。</p><p>　　首先，在過去的十年中，該公司投入了數(shù)十億美元來開發(fā)沃森，它認(rèn)為該產(chǎn)品可以幫助幾乎所有行業(yè)的專業(yè)人士。醫(yī)生可以更快地診斷疾病，同時(shí)銀行可以更快更好地回復(fù)客戶的查詢。該產(chǎn)品會(huì)通過使用IBM的DeepQA軟件和其他算法研究數(shù)百萬個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)化和非結(jié)構(gòu)化數(shù)據(jù)來實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。其次，如果Watson未能交付，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致已經(jīng)使用它的公司取消訂單。潛在客戶也可以放棄使用該平臺(tái)的計(jì)劃。但事實(shí)上，根據(jù)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley )的一份報(bào)告，沃森的數(shù)字并不如它宣稱的那么好。</p><p>　　</p><center><img alt="" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201901/1547597011347597.jpg" width="500" height="337" title=""/></center><p style="text-align: center;">　　來源：Morgan Stanley</p><p>　　但對(duì)于IBM來說，2018年最大的新聞仍是是該公司宣布以340億美元收購(gòu)紅帽公司。該公司希望紅帽能夠幫助它提高在云計(jì)算行業(yè)的市場(chǎng)份額。但有些人對(duì)這筆交易仍持批評(píng)態(tài)度。首先，IBM出價(jià)過高。其次，Red Hat可能不會(huì)為IBM的云業(yè)務(wù)增加多少價(jià)值。這是因?yàn)榧t帽自身業(yè)務(wù)中只有不到50%來自云計(jì)算。在宣布這筆交易時(shí)，羅睿蘭說：</p><p>　　“紅帽的收購(gòu)改變了游戲規(guī)則。它改變了云市場(chǎng)的一切。如今，大多數(shù)公司只有20%的云計(jì)算用戶，他們租用計(jì)算能力來降低成本。而接下來的80%將關(guān)于釋放真正的商業(yè)價(jià)值和推動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)。這是云的下一章。它需要將業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)用程序轉(zhuǎn)移到混合云，提取更多數(shù)據(jù)，并優(yōu)化業(yè)務(wù)的各個(gè)部分，從供應(yīng)鏈到銷售。”</p><p>　　這年最后的重大新聞是該公司決定以18億美元的價(jià)格出售其軟件組合。雖然這是正確決策的一個(gè)步驟，但其實(shí)IBM可以通過退出咨詢等低利潤(rùn)業(yè)務(wù)來做更多事情。</p><p><strong>　　望向2019</strong></p><p>　　2019年，投資者將繼續(xù)密切關(guān)注IBM與紅帽的交易進(jìn)展。紅帽目前的股價(jià)價(jià)格為175美元，低于IBM收購(gòu)時(shí)190美元的價(jià)格，投資者預(yù)計(jì)該交易將有10%無法實(shí)現(xiàn)。過去的案例表明，像IBM這樣有錢的公司在進(jìn)行大規(guī)模收購(gòu)時(shí)也會(huì)犯錯(cuò)誤。這些“困境”收購(gòu)的例子包括通用電氣收購(gòu)貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)、西爾斯(Sears)收購(gòu)凱馬特(K-Mart)、惠普收購(gòu)Autonomy、微軟收購(gòu)諾基亞)、惠普收購(gòu)康柏(Compaq)、美國(guó)在線(AOL)收購(gòu)時(shí)代華納(Time Warner)、以及雅虎收購(gòu)Tumblr等等。下圖顯示了收購(gòu)公司在交易宣布后的股票表現(xiàn)。</p><p>　　</p><center><img alt="" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201901/1547597012755052.jpg" width="500" height="346" title=""/></center><p style="text-align: center;">　　來源：Bloomberg</p><p>　　投資者預(yù)計(jì)，2019年的四個(gè)季度中，IBM將分別實(shí)現(xiàn)188.6億美元、197.8億美元、188.6億美元和220億美元的營(yíng)收。這與該公司2018年的表現(xiàn)基本持平。從每股收益來看，四季度預(yù)期分別2.335美元、3.237美元、3.237美元和4.974美元。但即使該公司的營(yíng)收和盈利都好于預(yù)期，投資者也應(yīng)繼續(xù)關(guān)注紅帽的收購(gòu)和各部門的有機(jī)增長(zhǎng)。</p></span>  <div class="6161616" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="6616111" class="hAd8"> <br></span>  <div id="1611666" class="quotes"> <span id="1111666" class="pre">上一頁</span> <span id="1611661" 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