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class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：何致中</span> <span>時間：2019-05-28</span> <span>來源：DiGiTimes</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="nvfjllj" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="jxtvzpp" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="xhlnrhn" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="hhlnzhf" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>IC、存儲器等代理通路業(yè)者對這波華為轉(zhuǎn)單商機說法抱持停、看、聽?wèi)B(tài)度，認為立即的轉(zhuǎn)單效應(yīng)恐怕言之過早。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201905/400923.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201905/400923.htm</a><p><a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/華為禁令"><em>華為禁令</em></a>事件持續(xù)推進，美國川普政府祭出軟硬件包圍網(wǎng)重手，包括從行動裝置操作系統(tǒng)、通訊傳輸標準等，十足將華為硬生生綁為中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)談判籌碼。</p><p>近期供應(yīng)鏈傳出，除了華為持續(xù)掃貨各類IC、元件等補足硬件戰(zhàn)力外，市場也進一步推論中國手機品牌二哥、三哥的Oppo、Vivo、以及同時是5G與手機產(chǎn)品最大競爭者之一的三星電子(Samsung Electronics)將有轉(zhuǎn)單商機，但對此說法，臺系IC、存儲器等代理通路業(yè)者認為言之過早。</p><p>熟悉<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IC通路"><em>IC通路</em></a>業(yè)者指出，短期內(nèi)，目前總體層面的大環(huán)境變化因素影響已經(jīng)超過基本市場供需，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/華為禁令"><em>華為禁令</em></a>也不只包括手機，更包括其擅長的網(wǎng)通設(shè)備領(lǐng)域，華為希望搶先布局5G的腳步是可能延緩。</p><p>而觀察終端手機市場，5G是關(guān)鍵推動換機潮的最大亮點，但今年貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)持續(xù)白熱化，估計2019年智能手機市場將是高性價比機種擔(dān)綱銷售主力的一年，市場規(guī)?？偭繎?yīng)該也不會有明顯成長。</p><p>熟悉<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IC通路"><em>IC通路</em></a>龍頭業(yè)者指出，今年為5G元年，目前跑得較快的包括美國、韓國等，5G市場也并非華為一家廠商獨拿話語權(quán)，也未必需要專注在特定單一業(yè)者的變化。</p><p>關(guān)于市場關(guān)注的轉(zhuǎn)單效應(yīng)是否發(fā)酵，通路業(yè)者表示近期由于G20在即，全球都持續(xù)關(guān)注美國川普政府是否還會繼續(xù)「出招」，除了華為因為已經(jīng)直接受到美國制裁壓力而備貨力道較明確外，其余競爭對手、相關(guān)零組件的所謂的「轉(zhuǎn)單效應(yīng)」備貨，目前并不特別明顯。</p><p>另外，供應(yīng)鏈傳出是否有可能芯片業(yè)者將貨塞往通路代理商間接再出貨給華為情事，熟悉臺系<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IC通路"><em>IC通路</em></a>龍頭業(yè)者坦言，基本上在美國祭出這90天寬限期時期內(nèi)，若以通路代理商的角度，不太可能有業(yè)者愿意冒著被列為美方「黑名單」風(fēng)險硬碰。</p><p>若以半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)與電子產(chǎn)業(yè)的景氣循環(huán)來看，第2~第3季各類3C消費電子產(chǎn)品IC需求仍會陸續(xù)竄出，也因此，如大聯(lián)大等具有經(jīng)濟規(guī)模的龍頭業(yè)者，仍認為下半年業(yè)績表現(xiàn)將優(yōu)于上半年無虞。</p><p>至于在存儲器等領(lǐng)域，由于全球主要DRAM、Flash原廠已經(jīng)成為韓系、美系、日系業(yè)者等寡占市場，基本上華為的選擇也不太多，臺系存儲器代理通路業(yè)者認為，短期內(nèi)川普政府動向仍會影響市場波動，第2、第3季的景氣能見度，比較無法給出明確預(yù)估。</p><p>但基本上中國方面估計并不會輕易認輸，也傳出華為希望在寬限期內(nèi)能「拉多少是多少」的說法，業(yè)界都會持續(xù)密切觀察后續(xù)發(fā)展。相關(guān)臺系IC通路商發(fā)言體系，并不對單一業(yè)者與供應(yīng)鏈說法做出公開評論。</p><p><br/></p></span>  <div class="zblpjrf" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area 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