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class="hLocation"> <p><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com" target="_blank">EEPW首頁(yè)</a> > <a href="/info/industry/special/smart">智能計(jì)算</a> > <a href="/info/articlelist/special/smart/type/4">市場(chǎng)分析</a> > 英偉達(dá)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手們?cè)诟墒裁矗?/p> </div> </div> </div>   <script src="https://forum.eepw.com.cn/jscontent/wenzilian" type="text/javascript"></script>  <div class="xuncczl" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>英偉達(dá)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手們?cè)诟墒裁矗?/h1> <div id="urvzoab" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：morningstar</span> <span>時(shí)間：2024-01-08</span> <span>來(lái)源：半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)縱橫</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="fwbdmfg" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img 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scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 微軟雅黑, "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: 16px;"></span>今年的人工智能熱潮徹底改變了半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的格局，將<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英偉達(dá)"><em>英偉達(dá)</em></a>公司提升為美國(guó)芯片公司的新王者，并給這家新加冕的公司帶來(lái)了未來(lái)一年更大的壓力。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/202401/454552.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/202401/454552.htm</a><p style="text-align: left;">長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英特爾"><em>英特爾</em></a>一直是美國(guó)第一大芯片商，幾年前首次將全球最大芯片商的桂冠讓給臺(tái)積電?，F(xiàn)在，華爾街分析師估計(jì)，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英偉達(dá)"><em>英偉達(dá)</em></a>的年收入將首次超過(guò)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英特爾"><em>英特爾</em></a>，成為美國(guó)第一。</p><p style="text-align: left;">更引人注目的是<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英偉達(dá)"><em>英偉達(dá)</em></a>對(duì) 2024 年的預(yù)測(cè)：分析師預(yù)測(cè)收入將達(dá)到 892 億美元，比 2023 年激增 59%，比 2022 年高出約 3 倍。相比之下，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/英特爾"><em>英特爾</em></a> 2024 年收入預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng) 13.3%，達(dá)到 611 億美元。</p><p style="text-align: left;">Cambrian AI Research 首席分析師 Karl Freund 表示：「它已經(jīng)融入了一個(gè)主要由英偉達(dá)控制的市場(chǎng)。因?yàn)橛ミ_(dá)正在占領(lǐng)兩年前還不存在的市場(chǎng)份額，在 ChatGPT 和大型語(yǔ)言模型出現(xiàn)之前……他們?cè)?a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/數(shù)據(jù)中心"><em>數(shù)據(jù)中心</em></a>市場(chǎng)的份額翻了一番?！?/p><p style="text-align: left;">英偉達(dá)已成為與英特爾主導(dǎo)的核心處理器領(lǐng)域相鄰的領(lǐng)域的王者，英偉達(dá)用于加速人工智能應(yīng)用的 GPU 重新點(diǎn)燃了<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/數(shù)據(jù)中心"><em>數(shù)據(jù)中心</em></a>市場(chǎng)。</p><p style="text-align: left;">英特爾憑借其至強(qiáng) CPU 系列長(zhǎng)期主導(dǎo)著整個(gè)服務(wù)器市場(chǎng)，5 年前，英特爾在 PC 芯片領(lǐng)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手 AMD 在闊別多年后重新進(jìn)入利潤(rùn)豐厚的服務(wù)器市場(chǎng)，據(jù) Mercury Research 統(tǒng)計(jì)，AMD 已經(jīng)占據(jù)了服務(wù)器市場(chǎng) 23% 的份額，英特爾仍以 76.7% 的份額占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。</p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/數(shù)據(jù)中心"><em>數(shù)據(jù)中心</em></a>中的 GPU</h2><p style="text-align: left;">如今，數(shù)據(jù)中心的故事全都與 GPU 相關(guān)，英偉達(dá)的 GPU 銷(xiāo)量的增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)快于核心服務(wù)器 CPU。</p><p style="text-align: left;">根據(jù)自 2019 年以來(lái)一直跟蹤 GPU 市場(chǎng)的 Mercury Research 的數(shù)據(jù)，第三季度，英偉達(dá)基本上占據(jù)了整個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心市場(chǎng)，其芯片、配套卡和其它相關(guān)硬件的銷(xiāo)售額約為 111 億美元。該公司的市占率高達(dá) 99.7%，剩下的 0.3% 由英特爾和 AMD 瓜分。</p><p style="text-align: left;">英特爾正在反擊，尋求重振數(shù)據(jù)中心和個(gè)人電腦的增長(zhǎng)，在疫情大流行期間信息技術(shù)和個(gè)人電腦支出大幅增長(zhǎng)后，這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域都在下降。本月，英特爾推出了適用于服務(wù)器和個(gè)人電腦的新芯片系列，旨在在設(shè)備本身上本地加速人工智能，這也可以減輕數(shù)據(jù)中心的部分人工智能計(jì)算負(fù)載。</p><p style="text-align: left;">英特爾 CEO 帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 表示，雖然人工智能和高性能芯片正在共同創(chuàng)造下一代計(jì)算，但考慮這些技術(shù)的功耗也很重要?！府?dāng)我們考慮這個(gè)問(wèn)題時(shí)，我們還必須以可持續(xù)的方式做到這一點(diǎn)。我們是否要把地球上三分之一的能源投入到這些計(jì)算技術(shù)上？不！」</p><p style="text-align: left;">與此同時(shí)，AMD 正在直接瞄準(zhǔn)熱門(mén)的 GPU 市場(chǎng)和 PC 市場(chǎng)。該公司本月也推出了大型產(chǎn)品，推出了在華爾街廣受好評(píng)的新 GPU 系列，以及用于數(shù)據(jù)中心和 PC 的新處理器。該公司預(yù)測(cè)，AI GPU 在上市第一年的銷(xiāo)售額將至少達(dá)到 20 億美元，這對(duì)英偉達(dá)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。</p><p style="text-align: left;">Futurum Research 首席分析師兼創(chuàng)始合伙人丹尼爾·紐曼 (Daniel Newman) 表示，AMD CEO 蘇姿豐 (Lisa Su) 對(duì)新的 MI300X 芯片系列的預(yù)測(cè)可能采取了保守的態(tài)度。「這可能只是她在外面看到的一小部分，」他說(shuō)：「她開(kāi)始看到非英偉達(dá)的 GPU 市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁……?！顾赋?，現(xiàn)在還處于早期階段，構(gòu)建人工智能生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的新發(fā)展窗口仍然敞開(kāi)。</p><p style="text-align: left;">Cambrian 的 Freund 指出，AMD 花了大約 4~5 年的時(shí)間才獲得了數(shù)據(jù)中心 CPU 市場(chǎng) 20% 的份額，這使得英偉達(dá)在數(shù)據(jù)中心 GPU 方面的驚人增長(zhǎng)更加引人注目。</p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Arm 競(jìng)賽</h2><p style="text-align: left;">另一項(xiàng)將進(jìn)一步塑造計(jì)算硬件格局的發(fā)展是 x86 競(jìng)爭(zhēng)架構(gòu)的興起，即精簡(jiǎn)指令集計(jì)算 (RISC)。過(guò)去，RISC 主要通過(guò) Arm 和高通的芯片設(shè)計(jì)進(jìn)入手機(jī)、平板電腦和專(zhuān)用于單一任務(wù)的嵌入式系統(tǒng)的計(jì)算領(lǐng)域。</p><p style="text-align: left;">去年，英偉達(dá)曾試圖以 400 億美元收購(gòu) Arm，但該交易并未獲得監(jiān)管部門(mén)的批準(zhǔn)。相反，Arm 在今年早些時(shí)候上市，并一直將其架構(gòu)宣傳為人工智能應(yīng)用的低功耗選項(xiàng)。英偉達(dá)與 Arm 合作多年。其基于 Arm 的 CPU 名為 Grace，與「Grace-Hopper」人工智能加速器中的 Hopper GPU 搭配使用，用于高性能服務(wù)器和超級(jí)計(jì)算機(jī)。但 Tirias Research 分析師 Kevin Krewell 指出，這些芯片在系統(tǒng)中仍然經(jīng)常與英特爾或 AMD 的 x86 CPU 搭配使用。</p><p style="text-align: left;">Krewell 在一封電子郵件中表示：「由于更現(xiàn)代的指令集、更簡(jiǎn)單的 CPU 核心設(shè)計(jì)和更少的遺留開(kāi)銷(xiāo)，Arm 架構(gòu)比 x86 具有能效優(yōu)勢(shì)。x86 處理器可以縮小 Arm 之間在功耗和核心數(shù)量方面的差距。也就是說(shuō)，除了 x86 傳統(tǒng)軟件之外，在 Arm 架構(gòu)上運(yùn)行應(yīng)用程序沒(méi)有任何限制?！?/p><p style="text-align: left;">直到最近，基于 Arm 的系統(tǒng)僅占據(jù)服務(wù)器市場(chǎng)的一小部分份額。但現(xiàn)在，RISC-V 的開(kāi)源版本正在吸引大型互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和社交媒體公司以及初創(chuàng)公司的注意力。功耗已成為數(shù)據(jù)中心的一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題，而人工智能加速器使用的能源數(shù)量令人難以置信，因此公司正在尋找替代方案來(lái)節(jié)省電力使用。</p><p style="text-align: left;">「Arm CPU 的份額正在迅速增加，但其中大多數(shù)是內(nèi)部 CPU（例如亞馬遜的 Graviton），而不是在公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)上銷(xiāo)售的產(chǎn)品，」McCarron 說(shuō)。亞馬遜的 Graviton 處理器系列于 2018 年首次推出，經(jīng)過(guò)優(yōu)化，可在亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)中運(yùn)行云工作負(fù)載。The Information 今年早些時(shí)候的一份報(bào)告稱(chēng)，Alphabet 也在開(kāi)發(fā)自己的基于 Arm 的定制 CPU，代號(hào)為 Maple 和 Cypress，用于其 Google Cloud 業(yè)務(wù)。</p><p style="text-align: left;">此外，一些 AI 芯片和系統(tǒng)初創(chuàng)公司正在圍繞 RISC-V 進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)，例如 Tenstorrent，這是一家由知名芯片設(shè)計(jì)師 Jim Keller 聯(lián)合創(chuàng)立的初創(chuàng)公司。</p><h2 style="text-align: left;">AI PC 的機(jī)遇</h2><p style="text-align: left;">與英特爾一樣，高通也圍繞個(gè)人電腦推出了產(chǎn)品線(xiàn)，這對(duì)于這家以移動(dòng)處理器聞名的公司來(lái)說(shuō)是一次全新的嘗試。它引用了將人工智能處理引入本地設(shè)備或所謂的邊緣的機(jī)會(huì)和需求。</p><p style="text-align: left;">10 月份，高通表示正在進(jìn)軍以英特爾 x86 架構(gòu)為主的 PC 業(yè)務(wù)，并擁有自己的 Arm 架構(gòu)版本，稱(chēng)為 Snapdragon X Elite 平臺(tái)。它專(zhuān)門(mén)針對(duì)個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)設(shè)計(jì)了新處理器，并表示其更低的功耗和更快的處理速度將受到企業(yè)用戶(hù)和消費(fèi)者的巨大歡迎，尤其是那些從事人工智能應(yīng)用的用戶(hù)。</p><p style="text-align: left;">高通高級(jí)副總裁兼計(jì)算和游戲總經(jīng)理 Kedar Kondap 在最近的一次采訪(fǎng)中表示：「我們的傳統(tǒng)是從權(quán)力極其重要的角度出發(fā)。我們覺(jué)得我們可以利用這一傳統(tǒng)并將其帶入個(gè)人電腦。個(gè)人電腦已經(jīng)有一段時(shí)間沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新了?！?/p></span>  <div class="nzddsxf" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" 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