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<span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2024-12-13</span> <span>來源：IEEE</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="frbx5lj" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="zd3n55t" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="df5ftjx" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="t5b5zp5" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>美國總統(tǒng)政府往往對世界各地的科技產(chǎn)生重大影響。因此，當唐納德·<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/特朗普"><em>特朗普</em></a>（Donald Trump）于一月重返白宮時，他的第二屆政府也將這樣做。也許比平時更多，甚至因為他的內(nèi)閣成員都與傳統(tǒng)基金會（Heritage Foundation）密切相關，該基金會是總部位于華盛頓特區(qū)的保守派智庫，背后是有爭議的 900 頁的領導力授權（也稱為 2025 年計劃）的幕后推手。當然，即將上任的政府將影響的不僅僅是技術和工程，但在 <em>IEEE Spectrum</em>，我們已經(jīng)深入研究了<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/特朗普"><em>特朗普</em></a>的第二個任期可能如何影響這些行業(yè)。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/202412/465511.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/202412/465511.htm</a><p>在<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/特朗普"><em>特朗普</em></a>競選期間，他發(fā)誓要撤銷喬·拜登總統(tǒng) 2023 年關于<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/人工智能"><em>人工智能</em></a>的行政命令，在他的平臺上表示，它“阻礙了<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/人工智能"><em>人工智能</em></a>創(chuàng)新，并將激進的左翼思想強加于這項技術的發(fā)展”。專家預計他將兌現(xiàn)這一承諾，這可能會扼殺許多監(jiān)管方面的勢頭，例如處理<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/人工智能"><em>人工智能</em></a>生成的錯誤信息和保護人們免受算法歧視。</p><p>然而，該行政命令的一些工作已經(jīng)完成;撤銷它不會撤銷報告或推翻各內(nèi)閣部長做出的決定，例如商務部長建立人工智能安全研究所。雖然特朗普可以命令他的新任商務部長關閉該研究所，但一些專家認為，它有足夠的兩黨支持來生存?！八?[幫助制定] 促進信任和安全的標準和流程——這對 AI 系統(tǒng)的企業(yè)用戶很重要，而不僅僅是對公眾，”倡導組織美國人負責任創(chuàng)新（Americans for Responsible Innovation）政府事務高級副總裁 Doug Calidas 說。</p><p>至于新舉措，預計特朗普將鼓勵將人工智能用于國家安全。他也有可能以保持領先于中國的名義，擴大與人工智能技術相關的出口限制。目前，美國半導體公司不能向中國公司出售其最先進的芯片，但該規(guī)則包含一個巨大的漏洞：中國公司只需要注冊美國的云計算服務，就可以在最先進的硬件上完成他們的人工智能計算。特朗普可能會通過限制中國公司使用云計算來堵住這個漏洞。他甚至可以擴大出口管制，限制中國公司獲得基礎模型的權重——定義機器學習模型如何工作的數(shù)值參數(shù)。<em>——伊麗莎·斯特里克蘭</em></p><p><strong>消費電子</strong></p><p>特朗普計劃對進口商品征收高額關稅，包括對來自中國的商品征收 60% 的關稅，對來自加拿大和墨西哥的商品征收 25% 的關稅，以及對所有其他進口商品征收 10% 或 20% 的一攬子關稅。他在上任第一天就承諾要這樣做，一旦實施，這些關稅將提高許多消費電子產(chǎn)品的價格。根據(jù)美國消費技術協(xié)會（Consumer Technology Association） 10 月下旬發(fā)布的一份報告，關稅可能導致筆記本電腦和平板電腦的消費價格上漲 45%，視頻游戲機、顯示器和 26% 的消費價格上漲。報告預測，美國對消費技術的購買力每年總體上可能會下降 900 億美元。在拜登的領導下，特朗普第一屆政府期間征收的關稅仍在繼續(xù)。</p><p>與此同時，特朗普政府在監(jiān)管大型科技公司方面可能會采取不那么激進的立場。在拜登的領導下，聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會起訴亞馬遜維持壟斷權力，起訴 Meta 違反反壟斷法，并努力阻止大型科技公司的并購。預計特朗普將取代現(xiàn)任 FTC 主席 Lina Khan，但目前尚不清楚自稱反監(jiān)管的新政府將對大型科技公司面臨的審查產(chǎn)生多大影響。來自 Alphabet、亞馬遜、蘋果、英特爾、Meta、Microsoft、OpenAI 和高通等大公司的高管在社交媒體上祝賀特朗普當選，主要是 X。<em>——格溫多琳·拉克</em></p><p><strong>加密貨幣</strong></p><p>11 月 6 日，也就是特朗普大選的那一天，比特幣上漲了 9.5%，收盤價超過 75,000 美元——這表明加密貨幣世界有望在下一個政權下蓬勃發(fā)展。唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）將自己推銷為支持加密貨幣的候選人，發(fā)誓要在七月份的比特幣會議上將美國變成“地球上的加密貨幣之都”。如果他信守承諾，特朗普可以通過持有美國政府沒收的比特幣來建立國家比特幣儲備。特朗普還承諾罷免美國證券交易委員會主席加里·根斯勒（Gary Gensler），他推動將大多數(shù)加密貨幣作為證券（如股票和債券）進行監(jiān)管，并受到政府的更多審查。</p><p>雖然特朗普可能沒有能力罷免他，但根斯勒很可能會在新一屆政府開始時辭職。特朗普有權選擇新的 SEC 主席，他可能會對加密貨幣更加寬容。證據(jù)在于特朗普支持加密貨幣的內(nèi)閣提名：霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）擔任商務部長，他的金融公司負責監(jiān)督 Tether 穩(wěn)定幣的資產(chǎn);小羅伯特·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.）飾演衛(wèi)生與公眾服務部長，他在一篇博文中表示“比特幣是自由的貨幣”;以及國家情報總監(jiān) Tulsi Gabbard，他在 2018 年持有兩種加密貨幣。正如特朗普在那次比特幣會議上所說，“規(guī)則將由熱愛你的行業(yè)而不是討厭你的行業(yè)的人來制定?！薄?em>科哈瓦·門德爾松</em></p><p><strong>能源</strong></p><p>特朗普對能源行業(yè)的計劃側重于建立美國的“能源主導地位”，主要是通過促進國內(nèi)石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)，并放松對這些行業(yè)的管制。為此，他選擇了石油服務主管克里斯·賴特（Chris Wright）來領導美國能源部?！皬牡谝惶扉_始，我將批準新的鉆探、新的管道、新的煉油廠、新的發(fā)電廠、新的反應堆，我們將削減繁文縟節(jié)，”特朗普8月在密歇根州的一次競選演講中說。</p><p>然而，特朗普在核電問題上的立場并不那么明確。他的第一屆政府為格魯吉亞最新的 Vogtle 反應堆的建設提供了數(shù)十億美元的貸款擔保。但在10月接受播客喬·羅根（Joe Rogan）采訪時，特朗普表示，像Vogtle這樣的大規(guī)模核電站建設“變得太大、太復雜、太昂貴”。特朗普定期表示支持先進核技術的發(fā)展，特別是小型模塊化反應堆（SMR）。</p><p>至于可再生能源，特朗普計劃“終止”聯(lián)邦對它們的激勵措施。他發(fā)誓要廢除《通貨膨脹削減法案》，這是拜登政府的一項標志性法律，投資于電動汽車、電池、太陽能和風能、清潔氫以及其他清潔能源和氣候部門。特朗普大肆宣揚對海上風電的特別厭惡，他聲稱這種厭惡將在他下任總統(tǒng)任期的“第一天”結束。</p><p>特朗普第一次競選總統(tǒng)時，他發(fā)誓要保護煤炭行業(yè)，但這一次，他很少提及。自 2008 年以來，燃煤發(fā)電量一直在穩(wěn)步下降，盡管特朗普在第一任期任命了一名前煤炭游說者來領導環(huán)境保護署。特朗普提名了前紐約州眾議員李·澤爾?。↙ee Zeldin）作為下一任環(huán)保署署長，預計這一角色將成為特朗普迅速放松管制的競選承諾的核心?！?em>艾米麗·沃爾茲</em></p><p><strong>半導體</strong></p><p>拜登-哈里斯政府在半導體領域的標志性成就是 2022 年芯片和科學法案，該法案承諾振興美國的芯片制造。當該法案通過時，該國還沒有進行領先的制造。在成立初期，新政府將享受一個非常不同的環(huán)境，至少有兩家領先的晶圓廠計劃運營，一家來自英特爾，一家來自臺積電。盡管如此，拜登政府對該法案在特朗普領導下的實施感到擔憂，因此急于在就職典禮日之前完成盡可能多的工作。</p><p>“我希望在我們離開時真的把幾乎所有的錢都付清，”商務部長吉娜·雷蒙多（Gina Raimondo）在 11 月中旬告訴 Politico，并補充說 CHIPS 辦公室一直在為實現(xiàn)這一目標而每周工作 7 天。在選舉之前，只承諾了 1.23 億美元。但在大選和感恩節(jié)之間，它又投入了近 160 億美元，其中包括向臺積電投資 66 億美元，向英特爾投資 78 億美元，以幫助建設這些先進的晶圓廠。批評者擔心，這種匆忙是以犧牲勞動力目標、納稅人護欄和環(huán)境審查為代價的。</p><p>一位華盛頓專家表示，即使即將上任的政府有興趣減少這一制造業(yè)的福音，也會很困難。與許多其他計劃不同，CHIPS 法案的這一部分有五年的撥款，因此國會必須采取行動專門取消其資金。由于至少有 20 個州的制造業(yè)資金正在為項目進行談判，此舉可能會讓國會共和黨人付出政治代價。</p><p>拜登-哈里斯政府也一直在忙于法案的“和科學”部分——決定三個研發(fā)中心中的兩個的選址，并承諾投入數(shù)十億美元用于封裝研發(fā)、半導體勞動力發(fā)展項目和國防相關研究。</p><p>Sivers Semiconductors 的董事總經(jīng)理兼哥倫比亞大學無線專家 Harish Krishnaswamy 參與了后者資助的兩個項目。由于本月早些時候已經(jīng)簽署了初步合同，他并不擔心項目第一年的資金問題?！拔艺J為存在不確定性的地方是延長到第二年和第三年，”他說。</p><p>至于來自國家科學基金會的半導體研發(fā)，短期內(nèi)不太可能成為目標，IEEE-USA的執(zhí)行董事Russell Harrison說。而且它總是可能成為一般預算削減的犧牲品。“從政治上講，研究很容易從預算中削減出來。在第一年，幾乎沒有廣泛的影響。在第 10 年，你遇到了一個大問題，但沒有人會從長遠考慮。<em>——塞繆爾·摩爾</em></p><p><strong>運輸</strong></p><p>即將上任的政府尚未就交通提出太多細節(jié)，但 2025 年項目在這個問題上有很多話要說。它建議取消聯(lián)邦運輸資金，包括由聯(lián)邦運輸管理局（FTA）管理的項目。這將嚴重影響當?shù)氐慕煌ㄏ到y(tǒng)，例如，紐約市的大都會交通管理局可能會損失近 20% 的資本資金，從而導致票價上漲、服務削減和項目延誤。美國進步中心基礎設施政策主任凱文·德古德（Kevin DeGood）警告說，“取消對交通提供商的資本或運營補貼將很快開始導致系統(tǒng)崩潰并變得不可靠。DeGood 還強調(diào)了 FTA 資本投資補助金的風險，該補助金為鐵路和快速公交等交通擴建項目提供資金。如果沒有這種支持，交通系統(tǒng)將難以滿足不斷增長的人口的需求。</p><p>2025 年項目還提議將聯(lián)邦航空管理局的某些職能分拆為一家政府資助的公司。DeGood 承認，如果結構合理，私有化可以有效，他警告不要假設私有化本身會導致監(jiān)督較弱?！罢J為政府控制意味著強有力的監(jiān)督，而私有化意味著松散的監(jiān)督，這是錯誤的，”他說。</p><p>2025 年項目的放松管制議程還包括取消聯(lián)邦燃油經(jīng)濟性標準，并停止旨在減少交通死亡人數(shù)的“零愿景”等舉措。此外，旨在將服務不足的社區(qū)與工作和服務聯(lián)系起來的計劃資金將被削減。包括伯克利法學院研究人員在內(nèi)的批評者認為，這些措施優(yōu)先考慮削減成本，而不是長期彈性。</p><p>特朗普還宣布計劃終止購買電動汽車的 7,500 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