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<span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2015-04-08</span> <span>來源：財富中文網(wǎng)(北京)</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="1111161" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="6161616" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="1116616" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="6111666" class="editorNote"> <strong>編者按</strong>：　　好的藝術(shù)家復(fù)制作品，偉大的藝術(shù)家竊取靈感。這句話是時間最喜歡去證明的事。</div> <br/> <div id="6611611" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　100億美元估值是全球科技企業(yè)夢寐以求的皇冠。2013年下半年，只有一家私人公司達到過這一數(shù)字，它就是Facebook。2014年上市之前，阿里巴巴的估值不過350億美元。今年初，來自中國的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/小米"><em>小米</em></a>成為全球最貴的未上市科技企業(yè)，450億美元的估值超過了近7成的財富美國500強企業(yè)。這真讓人有種霧里看花的感覺。不要說100億美元，幾年前，谷歌、亞馬遜在上市之前都沒有達到10億美元的估值。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/272179.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/272179.htm</a><p>　　最危險的泡沫往往是最光鮮的。在市場慢下來、冷下來之前，每一家科技企業(yè)都應(yīng)該從激情澎湃的喧鬧中轉(zhuǎn)身，找出自己的破綻和補丁。</p><p>　　承認破綻并沒有什么不體面的。蘋果iPhone手機面世之前，智能手機的代名詞是黑莓。如果早點找到自己的破綻，黑莓之父吉姆?貝爾斯利也許已經(jīng)當上加拿大首富。2012年，擊敗諾基亞成為全球手機霸主的不是蘋果而是三星。如果早點找到自己的破綻，過去的一年三星就不至于如此痛苦，不斷被蘋果和<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/小米"><em>小米</em></a>侵蝕市場份額卻束手無策。</p><p>　　真正的強者善于向?qū)κ謱W(xué)習(xí)，而不是在一場人氣泡沫的狂歡中冒險。缺乏專賣店體系，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/小米"><em>小米</em></a>的高端戰(zhàn)略不可能成功。進入智能家居領(lǐng)域，但是小米所有的假設(shè)均不成立。干不了臟活苦活累活，這是中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的死穴。小米的破綻和補丁，并不只是給雷軍的建議，更是給所謂“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)思維”的一席逆耳忠言。</p><p>　　破綻之一：缺乏專賣店體系</p><p>　　如果說史蒂夫?喬布斯身上有一個令人生畏的“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”的話，蘋果分布在全球的437家專賣店就是這個扭曲力場的實體版。去年，通過對美國200多家零售商的追蹤調(diào)查，以單位面積的平均銷售額排名，蘋果公司拔得頭籌，每平方英尺的平均銷售額高達4551美元，超過蒂凡尼(Tiffany)約50%，是Coach的3倍。反觀小米，它強調(diào)自己的優(yōu)勢是輕資產(chǎn)，沒有線下銷售渠道。其實，這恰恰是小米的破綻。</p><p>　　正如iPod重塑了音樂界、iPhone改變了手機業(yè)、iPad摧毀了個人電腦一樣，蘋果實體店也改寫了零售業(yè)。毫無疑問，蘋果是全球最成功的零售商之一。從今年開始，蘋果將不再在年報中披露零售方面的數(shù)字，因此，這將是我們對蘋果過去14年的數(shù)據(jù)作一番梳理的最后機會。這些數(shù)據(jù)可以讓我們看明白專賣店對于蘋果品牌的建設(shè)是何等重要。</p><p>　　</p><center><img alt="五歲的小米：還有哪些破綻，如何找到補?。? src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201504/57328d8a8b676b26cdfd8991d961060a.jpg" width="549" height="378" /></center><p> </p><p>　　蘋果公司零售業(yè)務(wù)營業(yè)收入(來源：蘋果官網(wǎng))</p><p>　　</p><center><img alt="五歲的小米：還有哪些破綻，如何找到補丁？" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201504/404929c4681d63890c07d4bfac6d3ce8.jpg" width="550" height="388" /></center><p> </p><p>　　蘋果公司零售業(yè)務(wù)的利潤</p><p>　　</p><center><img alt="五歲的小米：還有哪些破綻，如何找到補?。? src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201504/633c8c2c2c1424ef9ebce3283036d8f5.jpg" width="550" height="330" /></center><p> </p><p>　　零售業(yè)務(wù)對蘋果公司營業(yè)額和利潤的貢獻</p><p>　　在2001年到2014年的14年中，蘋果的營業(yè)額累計為8355億美元，其中專賣店的貢獻累計為1085億美元，占13%。蘋果公司的利潤累計為1760億美元，其中來自專賣店的為227億美元，與營業(yè)額的比例基本一致。這兩個比例的峰值均毫無意外地落在2008年，也就是全球金融危機爆發(fā)的那一年。也正是那一年，iPhone的銷量突破1000萬部。在2002年到2013年的13年中(蘋果公司未能提供2014年完整的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù))，累計有19億客人造訪蘋果專賣店，平均每天40萬人，每人貢獻的營業(yè)額平均為343美元。</p><p>　　如果說蘋果實體店的成功體現(xiàn)在銷售數(shù)字有多么亮麗，那恐怕太膚淺了。蘋果實體店已經(jīng)超越了專賣店的概念，也超越體驗店的概念。這里，一個城市最昂貴的商業(yè)地段，不是一個賣東西的地方，而是一個讓客人流連忘返的地方，蘋果像對待公主一樣對待每一位訪客。但實際上，每100位訪客中大約只有1位客戶在真正購買蘋果產(chǎn)品。那么其他99位訪客在做什么?在體驗，體驗蘋果味道中的每一絲暗香。</p><p>　　從喬布斯持有專利的玻璃樓梯，到類似酒店“禮賓部”的“天才吧”(Genius Bar)，再到穿 T 恤衫走來走去的無線結(jié)賬“專家”，訪客們感受著其他實體商店無法感受的體驗。有了自助式結(jié)賬功能EasyPay，消費者不用排隊付款，甚至不用和蘋果的員工說一句話就可以買下心儀的產(chǎn)品離開。一個愿意與客戶建立起情感聯(lián)系的品牌常常具備強大的黏性。這種黏性，也就是忠誠度，是利潤最好的催化劑。</p><p>　　今年初，小米發(fā)布了小米Note，打破了過去四年中小米手機最高1,999元的定價策略，第一次向3,000元以上高端市場邁出了試探性的一步?？陀^地說，小米用四年的時間完成了中國智能手機低端市場的整合。向高端市場擴張，這算得上是一個務(wù)實的戰(zhàn)略。但是，越往高端走，專賣店體系就越來越重要。</p><p>　　2001年蘋果第一家專賣店開張的時候，蘋果的4款產(chǎn)品幾乎填不滿6000英尺的店面。當時曾有人預(yù)言，兩年之內(nèi)蘋果專賣店將在痛苦和昂貴的代價中熄滅燈光。14年過去了，蘋果專賣店的燈光遍布全球十多個國家，成為一個城市魅力的象征。在建立企業(yè)品牌方面，專賣店扮演著至關(guān)重要的作用。專賣店是品牌的一張臉，對小米來說，僅靠十來家小米之家和幾百家第三方維修點是不足以支撐小米的高端戰(zhàn)略的。</p><p>　　專賣店的建設(shè)需要大筆投入。根據(jù)蘋果披露的數(shù)據(jù)，從2003年到2014年的12年間，蘋果在零售方面投入的資金平均每年為3.7億美元。這個數(shù)字在2012年達到峰值，為8.58億美元。對小米來說，與其大手筆地花錢收購小科技公司，不如耐心地打造自己的零售和維修體系，讓小米這個品牌出現(xiàn)在最昂貴的地段，出現(xiàn)在奢侈品店的周邊。如果零售業(yè)務(wù)能為小米貢獻10%的營業(yè)額和利潤，這才是在寒冬到來之前最好的布局。</p><p>　　破綻之二：進軍智能家居的所有假設(shè)均不成立</p><p>　　我們的家是全球科技巨頭試圖接管的下一個重鎮(zhèn)。去年，英國Juniper研究公司的一份報告預(yù)測，到2018年全球智能家居(Smart Home)的市場規(guī)模將達到710億美元。中國智能家居的市場規(guī)模是亞太地區(qū)的領(lǐng)頭羊。</p><p>　　智能家居是和企業(yè)、個人并列的第三類市場，其產(chǎn)品類別的復(fù)雜性超出前兩類市場，因此，由一家公司主宰這一市場的可能性不大。智能家居是物聯(lián)網(wǎng)(the Internet of Things)的一部分。消費電子制造商比如三星已經(jīng)開始推動其智能家居戰(zhàn)略。三星制定的時間表是，到2017年，所有三星電視都將成為物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設(shè)備，5年內(nèi)所有三星硬件設(shè)備均支持物聯(lián)網(wǎng)。三星是第一家具備提供完整智能家居生態(tài)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)品和技術(shù)的主流消費電子制造商。</p><p>　　小米認為智能家居將以手機為唯一的核心和終端，這個假設(shè)不成立。未來智能家居的拓撲結(jié)構(gòu)很有可能是去中心化的，所有的電子產(chǎn)品都是智能的，不需要手機來承載控制功能。僅憑手機來操作一切不僅沒有必要，甚至連通話功能都可以由智能手表來實現(xiàn)。手機會退化成什么還是一個謎，但是毫無疑問的是，手機的作用會極大地削弱，其唯一的價值就是app。</p><p>　　小米的第二個假設(shè)是它的操作系統(tǒng)將幫助它在智能家居領(lǐng)域站穩(wěn)腳跟。這個假設(shè)也不成立。試圖在智能家居市場攻城略地的都是數(shù)一數(shù)二的科技巨頭，比如谷歌、蘋果和三星，而且沒有一家智能家居廠商會將自己的操作系統(tǒng)鎖定在小米上。第三，小米認為其龐大的智能手機用戶群將成為智能家居的用戶，這個假設(shè)更不成立。用得起智能家居的消費者絕對不是小米現(xiàn)在的用戶群。根據(jù)騰訊去年的一份報告，針對50338個有效樣本的調(diào)查結(jié)果表明，在智能家居方面愿意花費5000-10萬元的占到近六成。</p><p>　　以單品切入智能家居市場，是一個合乎邏輯的戰(zhàn)略。去年初，谷歌以32億美元收購了智能溫控器廠商Nest。谷歌擁有世界上最大的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)搜索引擎和移動操作系統(tǒng)Android，并通過Google Now語音助理將兩者的關(guān)節(jié)打通。谷歌已經(jīng)把Google Now整合在Nest中，試圖通過語音這樣的人機界面來控制智能設(shè)備。蘋果在戰(zhàn)略方面一直保持神秘和低調(diào)，去年發(fā)布的家居自動化平臺HomeKit目前來看沒有取得太大進展，但蘋果顯然意在掌控智能家居平臺。這些國際巨頭都對智能家居虎視眈眈，小米僅憑一部手機就能把競爭對手都干掉，我看不出來有這樣的道理。</p><p>　　在所有的產(chǎn)品中，對人類生活影響最為深遠的當屬汽車和智能手機。我建議大家多關(guān)注一下智能聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車。有數(shù)據(jù)顯示，25歲到54歲的美國人每天待在汽車里的時間是1.2小時(中國的數(shù)字應(yīng)該遠遠超過美國)，而且預(yù)計2018年的聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車出貨量會接近7萬臺。既然是智能家居，既然是智能聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車，為什么打開家門的鑰匙不是車鑰匙呢?</p><p>　　破綻之三：干不得臟活兒累活兒</p><p>　　中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的普遍特質(zhì)是不愿意干臟活兒苦活兒累活兒，這正是他們的死穴。在線上，他們長袖善舞，四兩撥千金。線下業(yè)務(wù)投入大，周期長，見效慢，很多熱衷于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)思維的企業(yè)一到線下就死菜。小米也是如此。</p><p>　　“死磕服務(wù)”這四個字，說起來是最容易的，寫成書也不難，最難的是把這四個字做出來，做到位。如果做不出來，做不到位，那不過是“忽悠”。境界拉得很高，實力差得很遠，這樣的公司很容易虛脫。在過去四年里，小米成功地急速擴張，更多地是得益于智能手機市場的增長。但是，在增長的過程中，小米的內(nèi)在實力并沒有提升。如果我們拿聯(lián)想集團來做參照，憑借個人電腦市場的巨大商機，聯(lián)想在大力營銷的同時，并沒有放棄內(nèi)在實力的積累，而且一步一步、扎扎實實地走到了全球個人電腦霸主的地位。反觀小米，今天的優(yōu)勢和它三年前幾乎完全一樣，除了營銷，再沒有別的優(yōu)勢可言。</p><p>　　我不反對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)思維，要有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)思維但更要有技術(shù)底蘊。我贊同“豬站在風(fēng)口都會飛”，但是風(fēng)會來也會去，風(fēng)會起也會止，聰明的豬應(yīng)該從站在風(fēng)口的那一剎那就開始嘗試長出自己的翅膀來。</p><p>　　不管是蘋果還是小米，只要是商業(yè)組織，用的就是同一本字典。沒有足夠的利潤，企業(yè)就不可能有強大的活力。針對硬件不掙錢的質(zhì)疑，小米的解釋是要從軟件掙錢。但是如果看一下蘋果，過去三年中來自于軟件和服務(wù)的收入(包括apple store 和 iTunes)僅僅占到凈銷售額(net sales)的8%、9%和10%。可見，從軟件掙錢并不容易，蘋果如此，小米也不可能是個例外。智能手機行業(yè)，錢還是從硬件上來。對所有準備殺入手機市場的廠家來說，這個規(guī)律應(yīng)該牢記在心。</p><p>　　能帶來利潤的客戶才是好客戶。如果企業(yè)總是維持低端客戶，打造再漂亮的生態(tài)圈也沒有用，因為低端客戶缺乏消費能力。他們也許會熱衷于手游，但不會成為智能家居的用戶。</p><p>　　小米試水高端手機，這是一個真正的考驗。如果小米能成功蠶食蘋果和三星的高端用戶，那它真是一家挺有前途的企業(yè)。如果效果不好，那就是另一回事了。手機再貴，貴不到哪兒去。對于買得起蘋果的人來說，價格不是問題。他們買蘋果手機，買最新款的蘋果手機，一個無法開口的理由是蘋果體現(xiàn)著身份和社會地位，這背后是中國的中產(chǎn)階層渴望認同的復(fù)雜心態(tài)。</p><p>　　如果不去搶奪蘋果的用戶，小米的前景并不樂觀。但是，買得起蘋果的人有多少愿意放棄蘋果來買小米?這不是個猜謎游戲，回答這個問題還需要時間。無論如何，這是一場硬碰硬的較量，是一場生死攸關(guān)命的較量。</p><p>　　對蘋果和三星等巨頭來說，中國這個市場越來越重要，他們有可能會做一些以前外企不敢做的事情。比如，從3月底開始蘋果將第一次在中國內(nèi)地開展以舊換新計劃，擴大在中國的零售網(wǎng)絡(luò)也是蘋果未來的目標之一。三星最近的動作表明其有意放棄在低端市場的糾纏，并在3月初推出了曲面屏和帶移動支付功能的高端手機旗艦產(chǎn)品?？梢韵胂?，以技術(shù)作為試金石，高端智能手機的競爭將變得格外激烈。</p><p>　　小米的優(yōu)勢在于抓住了中低端智能手機市場的增長，劣勢在于擴張過于迅猛，沒有用心耕耘自己的核心競爭力。智能手機的競爭已經(jīng)白熱化，已經(jīng)到了恐怖的地步。壓死駱駝的最后一根稻草不是低端手機市場又殺進幾個攪局者，而是大勢已去，駱駝卻還在當街起舞。</p><p>　　從2007年推出第一款iPhone時的市值760億美元到今天的突破7000億美元，從2007年240億美元營業(yè)額到去年的1830億美元，坐擁近2000億美元現(xiàn)金的蘋果如果開辦一家銀行，將毫無疑問地躋身全球前十大銀行。但是蘋果最值得尊敬的，不是它賺錢的能力，而是它對偉大產(chǎn)品的追求。對小米來說，仿效蘋果，追隨蘋果，超越三星，是一個不錯的選擇。做一個比第一更好的第二，這才應(yīng)該是小米的志向。產(chǎn)品不會撒謊。</p><p>　　還有一件事。畢加索說：“好的藝術(shù)家復(fù)制作品，偉大的藝術(shù)家竊取靈感”。這句話深得喬布斯之心，并將之改為：“好的藝術(shù)家模仿，偉大的藝術(shù)家竊取?！?Good artists borrow. Great artists steal.)竊取從來都不值得驕傲，除非時間證明它足夠偉大。</p></span>  <div class="6611161" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="6666161" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="1666611" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="1161161" class="hAd6"> <div class="1616116" id="relA" style="width:auto;height:auto;"> <ul> <li>  <iframe id='af71d594' name='af71d594' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=114&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='650' height='30'><a target='_blank'><img 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