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border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　目前模擬、<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/內(nèi)存"><em>內(nèi)存</em></a>與PC芯片等市場(chǎng)，似乎處于淡季狀態(tài)──如果不是真的衰退;那么，半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)究竟是正朝向成長(zhǎng)速度趨緩、停滯，抑或是又一次恐怖的衰退?對(duì)此市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)VLSI Research執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)G.DanHutcheson認(rèn)為，以上皆非，芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)在2010年的熱啟動(dòng)之后，將“回歸正常”。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/113293.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/113293.htm</a> <p>　　也就是說(shuō)，芯片市場(chǎng)會(huì)冷卻到某種程度，回到一個(gè)更合理的成長(zhǎng)周期;但該市場(chǎng)仍有一些值得憂慮的地方──9月份全球芯片銷(xiāo)售額數(shù)字就是一個(gè)警訊，可能預(yù)示今年剩下的時(shí)間與明年，市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)會(huì)不如預(yù)期。“有一個(gè)說(shuō)法“9月定全年”，而9月份的芯片市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)確實(shí)有些疲軟，而且是全球性的，”Hutcheson表示：“整體經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣的趨緩，已經(jīng)為半導(dǎo)體與電子產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來(lái)漣漪效應(yīng)。”</p> <p>　　市場(chǎng)各領(lǐng)域則表現(xiàn)不一，Hutcheson指出，其中PC相關(guān)芯片銷(xiāo)售走緩，DRAM市場(chǎng)“面臨崩盤(pán)”，手機(jī)芯片表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，NAND閃存也維持穩(wěn)定，模擬芯片則好壞參半;此外芯片封裝與晶圓代工市場(chǎng)則表現(xiàn)合宜：“電子產(chǎn)品買(mǎi)氣趨緩，讓各家OEM對(duì)零組件采購(gòu)抱持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度;這種情況也不令人驚訝，因?yàn)榉敌＜疽呀?jīng)結(jié)束，學(xué)童都已經(jīng)回到學(xué)校上課。”</p> <p>　　VLSI Research仍維持原先對(duì)2010年芯片市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)率的預(yù)測(cè)，估計(jì)為33.7%;該機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)芯片設(shè)備產(chǎn)業(yè)的今年度成長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)則為103%。VLSIResearch指出，如果市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有冷卻，以上的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)可能要再上修;而真正受到?jīng)_擊的將會(huì)是2011年，估計(jì)明年芯片市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)率僅剩6.6%，同時(shí)間半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)率也會(huì)掉到10.6%。</p> <p>　　目前看來(lái)，很有理由對(duì)2010下半年與2011年初的市況感到憂慮：“PC市場(chǎng)與消費(fèi)性ic37持續(xù)步履蹣跚，連大廠英特爾(Intel)都聽(tīng)說(shuō)為了清庫(kù)存而大砍微處理器與芯片組產(chǎn)品價(jià)格;我們預(yù)期接下來(lái)的幾周，會(huì)看到微處理器現(xiàn)貨價(jià)面臨壓力。”VLSIResearch并強(qiáng)調(diào)，AMD、Intel與Nvidia都下修了業(yè)績(jī)展望。</p> <p>　　<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/內(nèi)存"><em>內(nèi)存</em></a>市場(chǎng)也持續(xù)呈現(xiàn)頹勢(shì);VLSIResearch指出，DRAM供貨商正面臨現(xiàn)貨持續(xù)急遽下滑的龐大壓力：“主流DDR3現(xiàn)貨價(jià)下滑的速度是24個(gè)月摩爾定律的(Moore’slawrate)的六倍以上，在這樣的跌價(jià)趨勢(shì)下，DRAM廠商的利潤(rùn)面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn);而其禍?zhǔn)资琴I(mǎi)氣不振的筆記本電腦市場(chǎng)，根據(jù)零售商BestBuy的指標(biāo)，筆記本電腦銷(xiāo)售是受蘋(píng)果(Apple)iPad所影響。”</p> <p>　　據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，DRAM每位單價(jià)下跌了3.7%，是兩年來(lái)的最大幅度;主流DDR3現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格則連續(xù)第五周大跌，下滑了5.4%。<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/內(nèi)存"><em>內(nèi)存</em></a>模塊大廠金士頓Kingston的一位高層主管表示，市場(chǎng)需求如果在未來(lái)3~4季持續(xù)低迷，DRAM市場(chǎng)就會(huì)面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。DRAM現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的低迷也蔓延到合約市場(chǎng)，整體DRAM合約價(jià)下跌了5.2%;而DDR3合約價(jià)更掉了9.5%。</p> <p>　　與DRAM相較，NAND閃存價(jià)格下跌幅度小了許多;但VLSIResearch指出，NAND閃存跌價(jià)幅度還是達(dá)到24個(gè)月摩爾定律率的兩倍：“手機(jī)、平板計(jì)算機(jī)是NAND閃存的需求主力，該市場(chǎng)衰退的原因是Apple已經(jīng)完成了今年度的采購(gòu)。”</p> <p>　　還是有一些好消息，例如手機(jī)芯片市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，封裝大廠日月光(ASE)也達(dá)成了優(yōu)于預(yù)期地的2010年第四季訂單量：“此外，平板計(jì)算機(jī)市場(chǎng)升溫，三星(SAMSung)最近發(fā)表GalaxyTab平板計(jì)算機(jī)新產(chǎn)品，這對(duì)手機(jī)芯片與NAND閃存供貨商來(lái)說(shuō)都是好消息。”VLSIResearch也表示，晶圓代工業(yè)表現(xiàn)搶眼，臺(tái)積電(TSMC)今明兩年?duì)I收成長(zhǎng)率估計(jì)各有40%與10%。</p></span>  <div class="brlfrjh" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="hztnfft" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="nvrlvtr" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="dnfjlbb" class="hAd6"> <div class="fprlzhd" id="relA" style="width:auto;height:auto;"> <ul> <li>  <iframe id='af71d594' name='af71d594' 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