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id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>東芝半導(dǎo)體“肥皂劇”劇終存儲市場亂戰(zhàn)或?qū)⒔夷?/h1> <div id="v3fbz37" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2018-05-22</span> <span>來源：21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="l1xx73h" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="995tljt" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="h1jb3p9" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="fr7xv7d" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　歷時近8個月的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/東芝"><em>東芝</em></a>半導(dǎo)體出售終于有望迎來終結(jié)。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201805/380320.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201805/380320.htm</a><p>　　5月17日，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/東芝"><em>東芝</em></a>公司發(fā)布聲明表示，其出售旗下<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/東芝"><em>東芝</em></a>半導(dǎo)體公司(TMC)的交易已經(jīng)獲得了全部所需的反壟斷審查批準(zhǔn)。作為收購財(cái)團(tuán)牽頭者的貝恩資本也于同日宣布，已經(jīng)收到中國反壟斷監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對此次收購的書面批準(zhǔn)。東芝方面預(yù)計(jì)，該交易有望于6月1日前正式完成。</p><p>　　韓國芯片巨頭SK海力士在TMC出售的交易中所扮演的角色一直是該交易的爭議焦點(diǎn)之一?？紤]到東芝與SK海力士在NAND市場均擁有較高的占有率，兩大廠商的此種聯(lián)系具體會造成何種影響值得關(guān)注。</p><p>　　此外，該次收購的完成又恰逢業(yè)界對NAND價格下滑存在擔(dān)憂之時，閃存市場是否會迎來一場“價格崩盤”甚至是“價格戰(zhàn)”的大戲同樣值得關(guān)注。</p><p><strong>　　NAND市場是否會呈集中趨勢?</strong></p><p>　　2017年9月28日，東芝發(fā)布公告宣布與K.K.Pangea(貝恩領(lǐng)銜的收購財(cái)團(tuán)為此次收購成立的專項(xiàng)收購公司)達(dá)成協(xié)議，將以2萬億日元(約合180億美元)的價格將旗下半導(dǎo)體業(yè)務(wù)部門出售給后者。除蘋果、戴爾、希捷、金士頓等公司，韓國芯片廠商SK海力士也在該財(cái)團(tuán)成員之中。</p><p>　　Coughlin Associates主席、數(shù)字<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/存儲"><em>存儲</em></a>行業(yè)分析師Tom Coughlin通過福布斯發(fā)文指出，由于西部數(shù)據(jù)與東芝的分歧已在早前得到解決，TMC出售的完成將能夠使得兩家公司聯(lián)合擁有的世界第二大閃存生產(chǎn)廠進(jìn)入穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)：西部數(shù)據(jù)很大可能將擁有穩(wěn)定的晶圓廠合作關(guān)系，蘋果、戴爾、金士頓、希捷等系統(tǒng)與設(shè)備廠商也將一定程度直接接入閃存芯片供應(yīng)渠道，而SK海力士則將能夠獲得部分東芝閃存技術(shù)。</p><p>　　芯謀研究首席分析師顧文軍對21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道記者指出，由于東芝半導(dǎo)體的收購方財(cái)團(tuán)中有<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/存儲"><em>存儲</em></a>業(yè)內(nèi)的領(lǐng)先者SK海力士，該次收購或會造成<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/存儲"><em>存儲</em></a>器市場的進(jìn)一步集中，從而在該層面對市場造成較大的影響。</p><p>　　此前媒體也曾報(bào)道稱，作為貝恩財(cái)團(tuán)參與者之一的SK海力士在這筆交易中所扮演的角色曾是中國商務(wù)部反壟斷官員對該交易存在疑慮的主要原因。集邦旗下DRAMeXchange數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年第四季度NAND閃存市場上，三星以38%的占有率穩(wěn)居第一，東芝以17.1%的占有率緊隨其后，SK海力士則以11.1%的占有率位居第五。</p><p>　　由于看好SK海力士在此次收購中投資的長遠(yuǎn)成果，三星證券在5月21日的更新中對SK海力士維持了“買入”評級建議，并將目標(biāo)價格設(shè)置在了10萬韓元(約合92.32美元)。當(dāng)日，SK海力士股價上漲1.37%，收于89100韓元(約合82.25美元)。</p><p>　　三星證券分析師Hwang Min-seong表示，東芝是三星電子目前在相關(guān)科技方面唯一的競爭對手，隨著東芝半導(dǎo)體在出售后的調(diào)整重組，該產(chǎn)業(yè)將面臨諸多策略性的調(diào)整。Hwang進(jìn)一步解釋稱，在TMC進(jìn)行IPO之后，SK海力士將所持的可轉(zhuǎn)換債券進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)換之后可持有TMC 15%的股份。</p><p>　　不過Coughlin認(rèn)為，TMC出售交易的完成并不意味著閃存芯片市場的集中，相反，該市場將會擁有更多玩家?！半S著像閃存等商品的成熟，和通常的產(chǎn)業(yè)整合相比，這是一個有趣的逆轉(zhuǎn)?！彼麑懙溃按朔N玩家數(shù)量的擴(kuò)張是受多家中國閃存制造商的崛起的推動。明顯，閃存行業(yè)還未完成整合。”</p><p>　　短期來看，TMC出售完成對其自身業(yè)務(wù)不會造成明顯的沖擊。在中國半導(dǎo)體投資聯(lián)盟秘書長王艷輝看來，由于目前存儲芯片廠商多處于擴(kuò)廠增產(chǎn)的步伐之中，出售一事終于結(jié)束懸而未決的狀態(tài)對其來說是一項(xiàng)利好。</p><p>　　集邦咨詢DRAMeXchange方面也認(rèn)為，交易完成之后，東芝后續(xù)Fab 6和Fab 7的投資規(guī)劃將能按預(yù)期順利進(jìn)行，足夠的資金投入也使得東芝閃存部門能夠更加專注于新技術(shù)的研發(fā)，從而在與西部數(shù)據(jù)維持良好合作關(guān)系的情況下持續(xù)在NAND閃存市場同三星抗衡。</p><p><strong>　　閃存價格存下滑壓力</strong></p><p>　　2017年半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的一項(xiàng)紀(jì)錄即是三星完成了對英特爾的超越，后者連續(xù)25年的全球第一大半導(dǎo)體廠商的名頭就此讓位。市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)Gartner數(shù)據(jù)顯示，三星以598.75億美元的營收和14.2%的市場占有率位列第一，其營收增長率達(dá)到了49.3%，而對手英特爾僅為8.6%。</p><p>　　不過，三星的強(qiáng)勢主要源自存儲芯片價格在過去兩年的飆升。其他以存儲業(yè)務(wù)為主的半導(dǎo)體廠商也在這波漲價潮中受益明顯。SK海力士、美光、東芝、西部數(shù)據(jù)在2017年?duì)I收分別取得了79.6%、71.1%、25.1%和119.6%的增幅，均遠(yuǎn)高于半導(dǎo)體市場整體21.6%的增幅。</p><p>　　顧文軍指出，過去兩年存儲器短缺造成的價格上漲已導(dǎo)致不少廠家積極擴(kuò)產(chǎn)以增加供應(yīng)，而從需求的角度來看，目前存儲芯片行業(yè)又缺乏“殺手級”的新應(yīng)用，存儲器尤其是NAND閃存價格下滑已是一個趨勢。</p><p>　　Coughlin也認(rèn)為，隨著3D閃存將逐步成為市場的主流，包括中國在內(nèi)的位于亞洲的新生產(chǎn)線將投入運(yùn)營，閃存芯片價格預(yù)計(jì)會結(jié)束2016、2017年的漲勢，在今年迎來下滑。三星電子亦在4月發(fā)布的二季度業(yè)績展望中指出，NAND閃存報(bào)價在二季度或?qū)⒊尸F(xiàn)疲軟態(tài)勢。</p><p><br /></p><p>　　集邦咨詢數(shù)據(jù)顯示，直至2017年一至四季度全球NAND閃存需求均大于產(chǎn)出，不過在2018年第一季度該市場已進(jìn)入了供過于求的局面。其4月更新的報(bào)告亦顯示，盡管NAND閃存需求增長，但供過于求的局面也仍然存在，這將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品報(bào)價在2018年第二季度進(jìn)一步下滑。</p><p>　　近日有分析曾指出，主要NAND閃存供應(yīng)商在過去兩年處于從2D閃存向3D閃存升級的陣痛期，而隨著技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)換已趨近完成、各大廠3D閃存均已成功產(chǎn)出，除產(chǎn)品報(bào)價降低之外，該市場還可能在未來數(shù)年迎來一場“亂戰(zhàn)”，直至形成類似DRAM市場的僅剩少量玩家的局面。</p><p>　　不過王艷輝對NAND閃存是否會在近期降價存在疑問。他指出，雖然閃存價格過去一年確實(shí)“漲太多了”，但存儲市場因產(chǎn)能和需求的調(diào)整而產(chǎn)生的價格漲跌一直處于循環(huán)狀態(tài)，很難判斷下一次價格下滑將始于何時。</p><p>　　此外，NAND閃存主要應(yīng)用于存儲系統(tǒng)，該市場目前的主要需求來自手機(jī)和云存儲?！笆謾C(jī)和云的存儲空間都在擴(kuò)大，市場格局也每年都在發(fā)生變化，今后的走勢還很難判斷。”他對21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道記者說。</p></span>  <div class="5v9tfjt" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" 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