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<h1>無人駕駛?cè)蚋傊?，為什么我看好中國力量?/h1> <div id="k4u4q44" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2018-06-08</span> <span>來源：創(chuàng)事記 </span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:150px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="meics2e" class="nav0"> <ul> <li style="width:150px;"><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />英飛凌汽車電子生態(tài)圈</a> <ul> <li style="width:150px;text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_2.jpg" width="150"><br />掃碼關(guān)注<br />獲取最新最全汽車電子<br />技術(shù)方案與實用技巧</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="2k4gs4k" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="y4w64w4" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="owcw44k" class="editorNote"> <strong>編者按</strong>：中國無人駕駛技術(shù)與西方之間的差距也是實實在在存在的。不過，我們也相信，在政府的全力推動和全民支持下，中國的無人駕駛在未來全球市場必將占有一席之地。</div> <br/> <div id="ogsua4e" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　近日，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/無人駕駛"><em>無人駕駛</em></a>行業(yè)再掀波瀾，先是通用Cruise接受軟銀22.5億美元的投資，接著Waymo斥資向菲亞特-克萊斯勒(FCA)一次性訂購6.2萬臺Pacific，一舉將其<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/無人駕駛"><em>無人駕駛</em></a>車隊擴大一百倍。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201806/381316.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201806/381316.htm</a><p>　　如此一來，補齊資金短板的Cruise和彌補了造車劣勢的Waymo可謂勢不可擋。相較于這兩家<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/無人駕駛"><em>無人駕駛</em></a>行業(yè)的Top 2，中國無人駕駛企業(yè)的技術(shù)差距不可謂不小。</p><p>　　那么，在無人駕駛?cè)蛸惖郎?，中國是否將被美國遠遠甩在身后?</p><p>　　且慢，無人駕駛技術(shù)從落地到最終普及還有很長的路要走，而這條路上的變數(shù)和復雜性可能遠超我們的想象。很有可能，中國在無人駕駛領(lǐng)域的異軍突起，會讓很多人感到驚訝。</p><p><strong>　　隱私換便利?</strong></p><p>　　最近，“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)女皇”發(fā)布的《2018年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)趨勢報告》大家都看了嘛?其中，不知諸位是否注意到一組非常有意思的數(shù)據(jù)。</p><p>　　來，讓懂懂筆記給大家畫個重點：根據(jù)市場調(diào)研機構(gòu)Gfk的調(diào)查，在全世界范圍內(nèi)，中國用戶更愿意為了利益而分享諸如財務和駕駛等相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，這一比例在中國為38%，比排名第二的墨西哥高出8個百分點，而美國則為25%。</p><p>　　想必大家都還記得，今年三月李彥宏因“中國人愿意用隱私交換便捷性”等相關(guān)言論遭到吐槽。不過，如果李彥宏換一種表述呢?</p><p>　　比如“據(jù)‘互聯(lián)網(wǎng)女皇’發(fā)布的《2018年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)趨勢報告》，中國有38%的用戶愿意為了利益而分享數(shù)據(jù)，在全球排名第一……”嗯，吐槽會少很多吧?；蛟S我們不得不承認，李彥宏可能說了一些大實話。</p><p>　　閑話不提，咱們今天聊無人駕駛，而之所以用隱私話題開篇，是因為中國人對隱私相對開放的態(tài)度在某種程度上正助力無人駕駛的高速發(fā)展。</p><p>　　眾所周知，數(shù)據(jù)是AI算法的養(yǎng)料，人們對數(shù)據(jù)隱私的開放程度決定了數(shù)據(jù)采集的難易。在西方，人們對數(shù)據(jù)采集技術(shù)的信任度普遍較低，但中國人對數(shù)據(jù)隱私卻不似歐美用戶那般敏感，并且這里有龐大的用戶和市場，可以為無人駕駛源源不斷地供給數(shù)據(jù)養(yǎng)分。</p><p>　　盡管如此，無人駕駛技術(shù)的發(fā)展和普及涉及方方面面的因素，如果從更系統(tǒng)的維度來審視中美之間的無人駕駛之爭，中國是否有競爭優(yōu)勢呢?</p><p>　　讓我們先把坐標移至位于美國西太平洋沿岸的加州，這個陽光燦爛的地方幾乎聚集了全球所有知名的無人駕駛企業(yè)。如果要在加州進行測試，企業(yè)必須定期向政府提交測試數(shù)據(jù)，而通過這些數(shù)據(jù)我們便可以管窺這些企業(yè)無人駕駛技術(shù)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。</p><p>　　根據(jù)加州DMV(車輛管理局)在今年二月份公布的數(shù)據(jù)來看，百度無人車平均每行駛41英里就需要人工干預一次，而Waymo的無人車每行駛5，596英里才需要人工接管一次。</p><p>　　從拿到加州無人駕駛測試許可起，百度無人車在2016年10月到2017年11月間共計行駛了1，971.7英里，人工干預次數(shù)為48次;Waymo無人車在2016年12月到2017年11月間共行駛了352，544.6英里，人工干預次數(shù)為65次。</p><p><br /></p><center><img src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201806/56111528416380.png" width="476" height="238" /></center><p>　　老實說，百度的數(shù)據(jù)是真的不太好看。有點兒失望?灰心?</p><p>　　別急，無人駕駛的發(fā)展和落地遠不是技術(shù)領(lǐng)先、數(shù)據(jù)漂亮這么簡單，其所涉及的人才與資金、政策法規(guī)、輿論環(huán)境等等因素也至關(guān)重要。</p><p>　　有意思的是，雖然百度的表現(xiàn)讓我們下不了嘴自夸，但在最近，諸如QUARTZ、彭博社、福布斯、Internet of Business等外媒卻給出了五花八門的分析，認為中國才是未來無人駕駛市場的贏家。</p><p>　　對此，手機屏幕前的你是不是一臉懵逼?為什么它們會這么說?咱們先別妄自菲薄，也不要過于得意，不妨跟隨懂懂筆記的腳步，客觀地來看看這些分析是否中肯。</p><p><strong>　　廣泛的民意基礎</strong></p><p>　　先來聽聽群眾的呼聲。</p><p>　　今年二月，德國技術(shù)服務公司TüV Rheinland發(fā)布的一份報告顯示，無人駕駛在中國有更廣泛的民意基礎，這主要是因為中國人更相信這項技術(shù)，并且他們比美國人更愿意上傳自己的數(shù)據(jù)。</p><p><br /></p><center><img src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201806/11841528416380.png" width="366" height="177" /></center><p>　　例如，63%的中國受訪者認為無人駕駛可以提高安全性，而只有34%的美國受訪者這么認為;71%的中國受訪者愿意為了享受新的服務而提供數(shù)據(jù)，而只有42%的美國受訪者愿意這么做……</p><p>　　為什么兩國消費者對無人駕駛的態(tài)度如此迥異?除了Uber和特斯拉等企業(yè)的無人車頻繁發(fā)生事故而引發(fā)相關(guān)的安全性及倫理探討以外，或許美國根深蒂固的汽車文化也能說明一些問題。</p><p>　　作為“車輪上的國家”，美國有350多萬人以駕駛為生，并且在很多州，駕駛員是最常見的職業(yè)。2015年，中國擁車量達到1.72億，而人口數(shù)量僅為中國四分之一的美國則有2.64億注冊車輛。</p><p>　　盡管無人駕駛企業(yè)均大聲疾呼“無人駕駛技術(shù)的普及會降低車禍率”，但從商業(yè)層面來看，去司機化以降低運營成本才是這些企業(yè)的終極目標。</p><p>　　我們用美國一臺24小時運行的電動汽車為例：據(jù)日產(chǎn)汽車董事長Carlos Ghosn介紹，為這樣一臺車充電需要花費250美元/月;租金約為300-500美元/月;由于這臺車為全天候行駛，因此需要三位司機，每月總計需支付1.5萬美元。</p><p>　　仔細算一下這筆開銷，顯而易見，一臺電動汽車的運行成本中，司機收入占了絕大部分比例。而無人駕駛的普及，無疑將為企業(yè)有效節(jié)省這部分費用。當然，這同時也意味著大量司機將面臨失業(yè)的窘境。</p><p>　　因此，無人駕駛技術(shù)會潛在地遭到美國部分司機群體的抵制也就可想而知。</p><p>　　事實上，無人駕駛技術(shù)在中國受到歡迎并非意料之外，因為中國人一向?qū)π录夹g(shù)持高度開放的態(tài)度。在美媒看來，中國在很多技術(shù)領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)超越了西方國家。</p><p>　　比如，在中國，智能手機幾乎無所不在，并且中國電子商務和即時交付等服務均笑傲全球;同時，令許多境外游客感到驚訝的是，中國很多商店都可以不用現(xiàn)金支付，并且在中國網(wǎng)約車和共享單車甚至比出租車更為可靠。</p><p>　　毫無疑問的是，無人駕駛技術(shù)的落地和普及在很大程度上有賴于大眾對無人駕駛技術(shù)、對無人駕駛企業(yè)、對政府監(jiān)管能力的信任。</p><p>　　因此，中國廣泛的民意基礎和大眾對無人駕駛的包容為該技術(shù)的順利推行創(chuàng)造了良好的輿論環(huán)境。如此一來，中國企業(yè)和政府在推廣相關(guān)項目、出臺相關(guān)政策時遇到的阻力將遠遠小于西方國家。</p><p><strong>　　中國有錢還有人</strong></p><p>　　“資金”是無人駕駛繞不開的一道坎，從技術(shù)開發(fā)、測試到落地，無一不需要巨額資金的支持。舉個例子，在無人駕駛汽車中，激光雷達是造價最高昂的部件，參見下圖：</p><p><br /></p><center><img alt=" " src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201806/76341528416380.png" width="512" height="143" /></center><p>　　據(jù)Nomura預測，激光雷達的平均成本到2022年才能降低至1000美元以下。</p><p>　　這就不得不提到硅谷一家非常低調(diào)的激光雷達制造商——Quanergy Systems Inc.，其生產(chǎn)的小型固態(tài)激光雷達成本已經(jīng)低于1000美元，毛利潤超過50%，而研發(fā)投入幾乎占其收入的70%。不過，走到這一步，他們花了三十多年的時間。</p><p>　　據(jù)知情人士稱，中國投資者可能會出現(xiàn)在Quanergy的下一輪融資中，并很有可能成為其重要股東。</p><p>　　彭博社提醒，投資人應重點關(guān)注諸如BAT等中國企業(yè)在無人駕駛領(lǐng)域投入的巨資，這些資金正彌補中國在該領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展鴻溝。</p><p>　　此外，彭博社還認為，無人駕駛用基礎設施的建設需要耗費的資金遠遠超過許多國家政府愿意承諾的金額，但是中國除外。</p><p>　　在中國，科技企業(yè)幾乎不缺風險投資，中國對初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的支持力度也不斷向美國靠近;同時，中國的研發(fā)投資也逐步逼近美國。</p><p>　　當然，除了充沛的資金實力之外，中國還擁有海量的人才儲備。</p><p>　　根據(jù)世界經(jīng)濟論壇的數(shù)據(jù)，中國每年畢業(yè)的大學生是美國的兩倍，而STEM(科學、技術(shù)、工程、數(shù)學)畢業(yè)生超過470萬，遠勝印度(260萬)和美國(56.8萬)。</p><p>　　與此同時，中國政府以及國內(nèi)多所主要大學正積極地在全球各地挖掘頂尖教授，而中國蓬勃發(fā)展的教育也在不斷強調(diào)創(chuàng)造力和創(chuàng)新精神?，F(xiàn)在，中國的科技人才向西方流失的現(xiàn)象較過去減輕了許多。</p><p><strong>　　強大的政府意志</strong></p><p>　　“只要中國想快起來，它就能辦到!”在美媒看來，中國政府的高效和執(zhí)行力非常驚人。</p><p>　　在西方，當涉及為無人駕駛汽車設立試點區(qū)域、提供基礎設施時，政府往往會面臨民主程序固有的各種爭議和阻礙;而如果中國想要建造地鐵或高鐵，政府可以迅速安置好群眾并及時提供補償。</p><p>　　再比如，2008年北京奧運會幾乎驚艷了全世界，而在印度舉辦的2010年新德里英聯(lián)邦運動會和巴西舉辦的2016年奧運會則問題百出。</p><p>　　最后，在福布斯看來，最重要的是，中國喜歡做到最大、最強，這與中國的復興夢息息相關(guān)。因此，只要中國愿意，它就能在無人駕駛領(lǐng)域脫穎而出。</p><p><strong>　　結(jié)束語</strong></p><p>　　以上分析不無道理，但中國無人駕駛技術(shù)與西方之間的差距也是實實在在存在的。不過，我們也相信，在政府的全力推動和全民支持下，中國的無人駕駛在未來全球市場必將占有一席之地。</p></span> 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title="NFC" target="_blank">NFC</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/STM32" title="STM32" target="_blank">STM32</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/Protel" title="Protel" target="_blank">Protel</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/GPS" title="GPS" target="_blank">GPS</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/MSP430" title="MSP430" target="_blank">MSP430</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/Multisim" title="Multisim" target="_blank">Multisim</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/濾波器" title="濾波器" target="_blank">濾波器</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/CAN總線" title="CAN總線" target="_blank">CAN總線</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/開關(guān)電源" title="開關(guān)電源" target="_blank">開關(guān)電源</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/單片機" title="單片機" target="_blank">單片機</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/tech/s/k/PCB" title="PCB" 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