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id="1d99ttf" class="editorNote"> <strong>編者按</strong>：凡是過去，皆為序章。越過山丘的新能源，面對的將是壯闊的“藍?！?，雖然不會歲月靜好，也許還會有波浪，但從申報項目情況來看，無論是市場層，還是監(jiān)管方，至少是信心滿滿且充滿理性，這對于剛邁出第一步的平價上網，算是開了一個好頭。</div> <br/> <div id="rdnjl9f" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　靴子終于落地。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201908/403333.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/201908/403333.htm</a><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>發(fā)展，成于補貼，困于補貼，在面臨千億補貼缺口的當下，平價上網成了順理成章之舉。</p><div id="799199p" class="reading" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px; font-size: 12px; float: left; clear: left; width: 310px; color: rgb(72, 72, 72); font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></div><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　一個大致的判斷是，到2020年，我國大部分地區(qū)可以實現風電和<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏發(fā)電"><em>光伏發(fā)電</em></a>側的平價上網。當然，這不只是發(fā)電一個環(huán)節(jié)的事，從系統角度而言，平價上網涉及產業(yè)鏈的方方面面。<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>產業(yè)將面臨哪些挑戰(zhàn)，需要如何克服困難，才能讓當下火熱的“紅海”成為全新的“藍?！?？</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<strong>需跨越“軟成本大山”</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　如今，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>已經進入可以與傳統能源競爭的時代。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　在歐洲科學與藝術院院士、瑞典皇家理工學院教授嚴晉躍看來，盡管新能源成本的下降經歷了類似于芯片領域摩爾定律的發(fā)展歷程，但新能源平價上網不是僅靠技術進步就能實現。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　研究顯示，雖然可再生能源的硬成本正在快速下降，但軟成本的下降并不明顯，導致目前軟成本占整個項目成本的比例反而增加。美國每季度公布的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏發(fā)電"><em>光伏發(fā)電</em></a>項目成本情況顯示，其硬成本每2~3年減少一半，但軟成本占比在8年之內卻從30%~40%升至60%~70%。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　軟成本也被稱為非技術成本。在我國，盡管風機制造、光伏電池等技術成本屢創(chuàng)新低，但非技術成本下降幅度并不明顯。有機構測算，2019年在保持非技術成本不變的情況下，產業(yè)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)距離發(fā)電側平價的要求尚需5~10個百分點的降幅。據瑞銀證券統計，目前一些項目的非技術成本高達0.5~1元/瓦，占總裝機成本的10%~20%。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　在業(yè)內人士看來，非技術成本包括前期費用和建設費用、融資成本、運營費用等等，已經成為了橫亙在發(fā)電側平價上網面前的“大山”。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　首先，非技術成本難以下降。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　主要包括前期費用和建設過程的費用。據業(yè)內人士透露，前期工作費用也被稱作“路條費”，在早年間有些光伏項目的路條費高達1元/瓦。據介紹，光伏電站前期工作，需要完成大量的文件，一般有：可研報告、備案文件、列入國家指標證明文件、土地租賃協議、項目用地紅線、土地預審文件、建設用地預審文件、林地意見、環(huán)評、水保、選址意見書、安評、節(jié)能、壓覆礦產、地宅、設施農業(yè)備案、安穩(wěn)報告、電力接入方案及批復、測繪報告、地勘報告、總評規(guī)劃、送出工程批復等。這其中，每個文件的背后，都需要付出大量的精力甚至費用。此外，在項目建設過程中，也會因為征地等原因增加成本，影響項目工期和投產時間。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其次，項目融資成本通常較高。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　新能源電站為重資產行業(yè)，一般規(guī)律是，投資方只需要出20%~30%的資本金，其余資金通過融資方式獲得。因此，能否獲得較低利率的融資，就成為衡量項目能否成為優(yōu)良金融資產的標準。2017年，我國光伏企業(yè)晶科能源以2.42美分/千瓦時(約合人民幣0.15元/千瓦時)的電價中標阿布扎比Sweihan1.17吉瓦光伏電站而備受關注，主要原因就是獲得了較低的融資成本。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　最后，業(yè)主單位運營成本偏多。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其一是租地成本。以每畝地可以安裝40千瓦左右的光伏電站，上網電價為0.4元/千瓦時(不含稅電價為0.3448)、土地租金約為800元/畝計算，每年的發(fā)電收入約為13800元/畝，租金部分就占發(fā)電收入的5.8%。其二，一些稅費也時常影響項目的收益。據報道，2017年某省稅務部門要求光伏電站按照5~8元/平方米的標準繳納城鎮(zhèn)土地使用稅。如按照10兆瓦光伏電站占用300畝土地進行核算，每年最少要繳納100萬元土地使用稅，占發(fā)電收入的比例超過24%。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　幸運的是，今年以來發(fā)布的系列文件明確要求，對于平價上網項目，要避免不合理的收費，要求各地在土地利用及土地相關收費方面予以支持。但也有專家指出，這一政策缺乏后續(xù)獎懲措施，實施效果上可能打折，建議參考光伏領跑基地項目經驗加強約束，做到獎罰嚴明。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<strong>要依靠“三大支柱”</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　新能源產業(yè)鏈的現狀，在新能源發(fā)電功率預測企業(yè)身上可見一斑。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　“我們是國內做功率預測第一批企業(yè)，也獲得了市場的認可，最好的時候年營收也就在一億元左右”，東潤環(huán)能董事長鄧建清對記者表示，“如今，我個人更關注氫能產業(yè)的發(fā)展前景”。國內另外一家從事功率預測的企業(yè)——大賢科技創(chuàng)始人兼總經理錢勝利也對記者表示，雖然平價上網可能帶來新能源的規(guī)模擴大，但目前國內電力市場尚無法體現功率預測技術的價值，目前公司的首要任務是先活下去，因此只能先依靠軟件開發(fā)項目生存。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　平價上網無疑讓習慣了補貼的產業(yè)鏈進入到優(yōu)勝劣汰階段。據彭博新能源財經分析稱，無補貼政策將壓縮項目收益，這將令平價政策的落實面臨動力不足的挑戰(zhàn)。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　由此，從整個產業(yè)鏈來看，需要在以下三方面發(fā)力：從企業(yè)層面，需要進一步提質增效，防范市場風險，提升核心競爭力；在規(guī)劃、標準和政策方面，應根據實際發(fā)展情況進行動態(tài)調整和優(yōu)化；在產業(yè)發(fā)展角度，要鼓勵跨界融合，打造生態(tài)圈，讓更多具有創(chuàng)新性的商業(yè)模式涌現出來，才能真正推動能源系統實現轉型和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　企業(yè)層面的實力比拼是根本。這一輪的平價上網，不是簡單的價格戰(zhàn)，而是真正意義上的綜合實力比拼。因此，新能源企業(yè)要將自己的事情做好，通過科技創(chuàng)新把降低成本、提升效率做到極致，才能得到市場的認可。一個辦法就是通過規(guī)模效應，無論是啟用大風機，還是采用高效光伏組件，無疑都會攤薄成本，增加獲利空間。規(guī)劃中的內蒙古烏蘭察布風電基地最大優(yōu)勢在于規(guī)模：裝機量600萬千瓦，落地電價為0.35元/千瓦時。另一個方法就是提升管理運維效率，通過信息化技術提高運營效率，通過大數據等技術拓展市場空間。據測算，在滿足“三北”地區(qū)棄光率低于5%、光伏全部上網電量得到保價保量收購和光伏造價下降到3.6元/千瓦以內這三個條件的情況下，2020年，全國大部分地區(qū)光伏電站可實現無補貼平價上網。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　政策層面的保駕護航是保障。以光伏為例，當前地面電站要實現平價上網，必須是電價高、資源條件都好的地區(qū)。國家可再生能源信息管理中心綜合管理處副處長徐國新認為，“做好試點項目，探索平價上網所需的保障條件，積累制度基礎和操作經驗，將為后續(xù)產業(yè)健康發(fā)展帶來積極影響。”為此建議有關部門加強溝通協調，對光伏行業(yè)征地范圍、稅收標準、征收年限等盡快予以明確，并強調光伏項目建成時的土地稅費政策，在電站全生命周期中維持不變，不得在項目建成后增收新的土地稅費項目和增加金額，切實降低非技術成本。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　產業(yè)層面的科技創(chuàng)新是關鍵。新能源從輔助能源到替代能源再到主導能源的過程，需要增強創(chuàng)新意識。平價上網已經開啟了承上啟下的大門，產業(yè)界首先要從思維方式上適應這場變革，研究如何使風電、太陽能等成為穩(wěn)定可控的能源類型，不斷提升其并網友好性，與其他能源互補配合，并聯手能源、金融各方，不斷完善產業(yè)生態(tài)，創(chuàng)新商業(yè)模式，通過綠證交易、隔墻售電、光儲結合等方式，營造消納消費綠電的商業(yè)環(huán)境和社會氛圍。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<strong>將迎來“三重機遇”</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　越過山丘，會發(fā)現什么？</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　2019年被視為平價上網的試水年。針對日前發(fā)布的第一批名單，中金公司分析認為，盡管獲批規(guī)模少于申報量，但光伏項目占比七成、分布式隔墻售電試點啟動也超出預期。更為重要的是，新政提供了穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的預期，也有望解決土地、融資和消納等問題，由此帶來的規(guī)模增<a target="_blank" class="keytip" style="outline-style: none; color: rgb(4, 51, 150);">長和</a>商業(yè)機會將不可限量。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　2017年5月23日，國家能源局下發(fā)開展風電平價上網示范工作通知，至今年5月22日首批項目公示之日，這一歷程整整走過了3年的時間。6月30日前，新建平價上網項目有望開工。未來的“藍?！睍心男C會？</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　徐國新認為，平價上網政策將給行業(yè)帶來三大變化：</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其一，加速替代化石能源進程。在平價上網政策推動下，新能源和化石能源的市場競爭將轉化為燃料價格和新能源度電成本的競爭。從長期趨勢看，新能源成本還將繼續(xù)下探，化石能源將因燃料價格波動以及環(huán)保成本上升失去成本優(yōu)勢，促使新能源在市場競價中逐步占據主導地位，加速替代化石能源的進程。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其二，推動能源共享經濟時代到來。分布式新能源將因成本低，消納條件好，節(jié)約輸配電投資等原因，實現大范圍覆蓋。平價上網可以推動能源互聯網高速到來，實現可再生能源智能化，一體化生產、傳輸、存儲、消費以及市場交易。在以泛在電力物聯網為平臺的基礎設施之上，或許會孕育出“殺手級”的新能源商業(yè)模式。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其三，推動新能源成為綠色金融產品。近零邊際成本特性降低了新能源資產風險，使其易于取得更高信用評級，融資方式將繼續(xù)多樣化，從而增強企業(yè)資產的流動性。新政鼓勵平價項目出售綠證，較低的價格可對自愿綠證市場起到激活作用。此外可再生能源配額機制正式實施后，達不到配額要求的義務主體也可以通過購買綠證的渠道來完成配額，這會進一步擴大綠證市場。目前全國采購綠證數量不到3萬個，并且當前綠證價格比較高，風電一般在0.2元/千瓦時左右，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏發(fā)電"><em>光伏發(fā)電</em></a>在0.5~0.6元/千瓦時，對比歐洲自愿綠證系統的價格約為0.2~0.3歐分/千瓦時，約合人民幣2分錢左右，未來綠證市場發(fā)展存在較大空間。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　此外，本輪方案提出執(zhí)行固定電價收購政策和強化全額保障性收購政策，同時明確由電網企業(yè)建設接網工程。此舉無疑極大增強了投資方的信心，但對于簽訂不少于20年的固定電價購售電合同，業(yè)界專家指出，真正保障平價上網不是僅僅簽訂一個合同那么簡單，需要通過技術突破和全產業(yè)鏈合力創(chuàng)新商業(yè)模式方能保障。比如，當遇到新能源出力低到極端情況時，出于安全考慮，可以通過新能源+儲能或其他應急設施保證平滑出力，為此應該考慮相關投資如何通過市場機制找到出口，這一舉措無論對于電網、電站還是用戶都具有相當的積極作用，未來也將產生很多機會。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　凡是過去，皆為序章。越過山丘的新能源，面對的將是壯闊的“藍海”，雖然不會歲月靜好，也許還會有波浪，但從申報項目情況來看，無論是市場層，還是監(jiān)管方，至少是信心滿滿且充滿理性，這對于剛邁出第一步的平價上網，算是開了一個好頭。</p><p><br/></p></span>  <div class="n717r99" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> 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