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href="/info/industry/special/eda">EDA/PCB</a> > <a href="/info/articlelist/special/eda/type/3">業(yè)界動(dòng)態(tài)</a> > 芯片業(yè)遭遇“寒流” 產(chǎn)業(yè)融合或?qū)⑵凭?/p> </div> </div> </div>   <script src="https://forum.eepw.com.cn/jscontent/wenzilian" type="text/javascript"></script>  <div class="pyjxmqc" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>芯片業(yè)遭遇“寒流” 產(chǎn)業(yè)融合或?qū)⑵凭?/h1> <div id="iydgghe" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：張偉</span> <span>時(shí)間：2008-07-31</span> <span>來(lái)源：中國(guó)高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)導(dǎo)報(bào)</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="avvvvlm" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://www.ex-cimer.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對(duì)面交流<br />海量資料庫(kù)查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="vdlpabg" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="vecvdae" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="oxmffcz" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　進(jìn)入2008年，國(guó)內(nèi)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/芯片設(shè)計(jì)"><em>芯片設(shè)計(jì)</em></a>業(yè)一片“哀鴻”，多家公司因?yàn)橘Y金、市場(chǎng)等問(wèn)題相繼壯烈“犧牲”，另有一些企業(yè)通過(guò)裁員等形式進(jìn)行不同程度地掙扎。專家表示，目前中國(guó)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IC設(shè)計(jì)"><em>IC設(shè)計(jì)</em></a>的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈過(guò)長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈脫節(jié)，協(xié)作配合不足，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IC設(shè)計(jì)"><em>IC設(shè)計(jì)</em></a>企業(yè)很難理解、把握客戶和市場(chǎng)的真正要求，產(chǎn)業(yè)的進(jìn)一步融合才是中國(guó)IC產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的出路。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/86448.htm">http://www.ex-cimer.com/article/86448.htm</a> <p>　　“2008年將是中國(guó)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/IC設(shè)計(jì)"><em>IC設(shè)計(jì)</em></a>業(yè)的生死年。”早在今年年初，iSuppli中國(guó)區(qū)半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)分析師顧文軍就曾預(yù)測(cè)，資金的匱乏和政策缺位，將使中國(guó)IC設(shè)計(jì)業(yè)的生存環(huán)境進(jìn)一步惡化，一批公司很可能因此倒閉。與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的是，進(jìn)入2008年，國(guó)內(nèi)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/芯片設(shè)計(jì)"><em>芯片設(shè)計(jì)</em></a>業(yè)一片“哀鴻”，多家公司因?yàn)橘Y金、市場(chǎng)等問(wèn)題相繼壯烈“犧牲”，另有一些企業(yè)通過(guò)裁員等形式進(jìn)行不同程度的掙扎。</p> <p>　　更不樂(lè)觀的是，ISuppli的一份研究報(bào)告認(rèn)為，中國(guó)現(xiàn)有近500家IC設(shè)計(jì)企業(yè)中的多數(shù)是小企業(yè)。對(duì)這些<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/芯片設(shè)計(jì)"><em>芯片設(shè)計(jì)</em></a>企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，籌集資金進(jìn)一步做大做強(qiáng)是免于被淘汰的努力方向。美國(guó)國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資協(xié)會(huì)最新公布的一份調(diào)查顯示，盡管2008年全球投在高科技項(xiàng)目上的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資將繼續(xù)增加，但半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)投資將會(huì)下滑。由于半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)具有全球化特性，國(guó)內(nèi)許多芯片設(shè)計(jì)企業(yè)早期的資金基本都來(lái)源于海外，特別是半導(dǎo)體大國(guó)美國(guó)。因此，這一調(diào)查結(jié)果對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)芯片設(shè)計(jì)企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)無(wú)疑是個(gè)壞消息。</p> <p><strong>　　資本作祟</strong></p> <p>　　大唐徹底退出<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/TD"><em>TD</em></a>芯片的消息一度引起業(yè)界震驚。大唐移動(dòng)以1.22億元出售其所持有的天基科技32.11%的股權(quán)，這部分股權(quán)已于6月16日至7月11日在北京產(chǎn)權(quán)交易所掛牌。</p> <p>　　天基科技是2004年由大唐移動(dòng)、飛利浦半導(dǎo)體、三星電子以及摩托羅拉共同合資成立的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/TD"><em>TD</em></a>終端芯片企業(yè)，除大唐移動(dòng)外，其他３家企業(yè)的股權(quán)比例分別為42.7%、16.91%和8.28%。對(duì)于退出<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/TD"><em>TD</em></a>芯片的原因，大唐移動(dòng)表示，資金并不是出售天基科技股權(quán)的最主要原因，大唐移動(dòng)不存在資金困擾，只是“各個(gè)股東對(duì)未來(lái)TD商業(yè)模式有不同的判斷”。</p> <p>　　無(wú)獨(dú)有偶。近期，同為T(mén)D手機(jī)芯片合資企業(yè)的凱明由于17個(gè)股東之間無(wú)法達(dá)成一致，最終宣布停止運(yùn)營(yíng)。凱明成立于2002年2月，由中國(guó)普天、大唐電信、諾基亞、德州儀器、LG電子等9家國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)和8家國(guó)外企業(yè)聯(lián)合出資組建。但由于中國(guó)的TD進(jìn)程一拖再拖，到目前仍沒(méi)有進(jìn)入正式的商用階段，導(dǎo)致凱明TD芯片一直無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)大規(guī)模量產(chǎn)，股東們已經(jīng)無(wú)法繼續(xù)忍受這種大筆資金注入而遲遲未能獲取回報(bào)的狀況，開(kāi)始對(duì)行業(yè)喪失信心。</p> <p>　　凱明倒下，大唐撤退，這對(duì)TD芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)無(wú)疑是一次重創(chuàng)。是什么導(dǎo)致中國(guó)芯片企業(yè)面臨危機(jī)？業(yè)內(nèi)分析師認(rèn)為，首先是行業(yè)的原因，半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的特性決定了這些以研發(fā)為主的企業(yè)技術(shù)超前，但國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)一片空白，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/3G"><em>3G</em></a>產(chǎn)業(yè)在沒(méi)有大規(guī)模商業(yè)化運(yùn)作之前根本不能實(shí)現(xiàn)量產(chǎn)。其次，漫長(zhǎng)的投資期使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本不愿加大投入，而企業(yè)自有資金難以維持運(yùn)營(yíng)。</p> <p>　　被譽(yù)為“TD之父”的李世鶴表示，世界上沒(méi)有一個(gè)國(guó)家讓一個(gè)通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)試驗(yàn)了又試驗(yàn)，如果技術(shù)問(wèn)題解決了，就應(yīng)該早點(diǎn)商用。但由于TD進(jìn)展緩慢，一些支持TD的廠商日子很難過(guò)”。</p> <p><strong>　　需求減退</strong></p> <p>　　記者了解到，目前，包括諾基亞、三星電子、LG電子等國(guó)際手機(jī)品牌大廠紛紛在今年第二季度末著手“砍單”，這一舉動(dòng)預(yù)示著第三季度全球手機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求恐將提前經(jīng)歷寒冬。因此，近期幾家國(guó)際手機(jī)芯片巨頭大膽預(yù)估，第三季度全球手機(jī)需求的增幅將在5%以內(nèi)，與過(guò)去幾年第三季度動(dòng)輒增長(zhǎng)兩成的增幅產(chǎn)生極大反差。</p> <p>　　目前看來(lái)，業(yè)界除高通的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/3G"><em>3G</em></a>芯片市場(chǎng)占有率持續(xù)提升、英飛凌新款<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/3G"><em>3G</em></a> iPhone訂單增加以外，其他手機(jī)芯片企業(yè)大多已預(yù)期，其第三季度運(yùn)營(yíng)“恐怕難有好的表現(xiàn)”。</p> <p>　　盡管?chē)?guó)內(nèi)外手機(jī)芯片企業(yè)一直希望有奇跡出現(xiàn)，但截至目前客戶下單情況仍不踴躍。國(guó)際手機(jī)芯片巨頭認(rèn)為，第三季度全球手機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求將出現(xiàn)不到5%的增長(zhǎng)率，應(yīng)該與新興國(guó)家市場(chǎng)如印度、中國(guó)近期需求逐月衰退減有關(guān)。自歐美市場(chǎng)2007年第四季度起表現(xiàn)不佳以來(lái)，新興國(guó)家市場(chǎng)便成為全球主要“撐盤(pán)”主角。然而，在油價(jià)持續(xù)上漲以及通貨膨脹等問(wèn)題的沖擊下，新興國(guó)家的市場(chǎng)需求也開(kāi)始崩解，這種情形讓第三季度全球手機(jī)市場(chǎng)蔓延著一種悲觀情緒。</p> <p>　　事實(shí)上，近期包括聯(lián)發(fā)科、德州儀器、恩智浦、意法半導(dǎo)體紛紛放出中國(guó)、印度手機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求轉(zhuǎn)弱的消息。由于國(guó)際手機(jī)巨頭對(duì)第三季度運(yùn)營(yíng)展望趨于保守態(tài)度，目前除高通、英飛凌手中握有重要訂單，在手機(jī)芯片出貨上仍能獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷外，其他國(guó)內(nèi)外手機(jī)芯片企業(yè)在第三季度的運(yùn)營(yíng)表現(xiàn)不容樂(lè)觀。</p> <p><strong>　　尋找春天</strong></p> <p>　　“整個(gè)芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入一個(gè)衰退期，不僅中國(guó)如此，整個(gè)亞洲甚至全世界芯片企業(yè)今后的日子都不會(huì)好過(guò)。”金時(shí)咨詢芯片行業(yè)分析師徐曉光表示，由于近年來(lái)亞洲新興國(guó)家芯片生產(chǎn)能力迅速提高，全球芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)出現(xiàn)供給過(guò)剩的趨勢(shì)，最終導(dǎo)致周期性的衰退，而這一衰退周期的長(zhǎng)短則很難估計(jì)。另有跡象表明，在這場(chǎng)全球性的行業(yè)衰退當(dāng)中，中國(guó)芯片企業(yè)受到的沖擊尤為巨大，因?yàn)榇饲皫啄曛袊?guó)芯片業(yè)剛剛開(kāi)始呈現(xiàn)高速發(fā)展的態(tài)勢(shì)。</p> <p><br /> 　　事實(shí)上，環(huán)顧全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)，凡是成功發(fā)展半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的國(guó)家和地區(qū)，都走出了一條不同于別國(guó)的特色之路——美國(guó)重視創(chuàng)新，依靠技術(shù)領(lǐng)先領(lǐng)導(dǎo)全球市場(chǎng);日韓依賴大型系統(tǒng)廠商(<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/OEM"><em>OEM</em></a>)支持獨(dú)霸一方;中國(guó)臺(tái)灣地區(qū)則依賴制造的規(guī)模效應(yīng)和成本優(yōu)勢(shì)在全球占得一席之地。但到目前為止，中國(guó)大陸仍然沒(méi)有找到一個(gè)合適自身發(fā)展的明晰的路徑。</p> <p>　　芯片業(yè)觀察人士吳同偉認(rèn)為，對(duì)大多數(shù)國(guó)內(nèi)中小企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，因?yàn)闆](méi)有定價(jià)權(quán)和資源掌控權(quán)，不能奢望很高的毛利潤(rùn)率，但是通過(guò)開(kāi)源節(jié)流，完全可以享受較高的回報(bào)。“中小企業(yè)應(yīng)該學(xué)會(huì)低利潤(rùn)時(shí)代的生存法則，用效率換利潤(rùn)，用時(shí)間換空間。一旦行業(yè)出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，就有機(jī)會(huì)脫穎而出”。</p> <p>　　Gartner中國(guó)區(qū)行業(yè)分析師徐永認(rèn)為，中國(guó)企業(yè)應(yīng)該正視自身的情況，重點(diǎn)抓住低端消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)。顧文軍表示，目前中國(guó)IC設(shè)計(jì)的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈過(guò)長(zhǎng)，從IP供應(yīng)商、Fabless、Foundry、設(shè)計(jì)服務(wù)企業(yè)、封裝測(cè)試、Designhouse到經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商，再到<a class="contentlabel" href="http://www.ex-cimer.com/news/listbylabel/label/OEM"><em>OEM</em></a>，最后通過(guò)賣(mài)場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)售給消費(fèi)者，導(dǎo)致了產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈脫節(jié)，協(xié)作配合不足，IC設(shè)計(jì)企業(yè)很難理解、把握客戶和市場(chǎng)的真正要求，“產(chǎn)業(yè)的進(jìn)一步融合才是中國(guó)IC產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的出路”。</p></span>  <div class="dmbibgs" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" 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